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Full text of "Fire risk analysis : a systems approach"

DOU. 

FBI 1.8: 
F51/2/ 
student 



NFA-SM-FRAS 
December 15, 1983 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 




FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: 
A SYSTEMS APPROACH 




STUDENT MANUAL 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



UNIVERSITY OF 
ILLINOIS LIBRARY 

AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN 
STACKS 



National Emergency Training Center 



National Fire Academy 



Fire Risk Analysis: 

A Systems Approach 



JAN 2 4 



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Louis O. Giuffrida, Director 



Fred J. Villella, Associate Director 
Training and Fire Programs 



I 









FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



'KDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY 

NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 

NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 

FOREWORD 



The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was 
established in 1979 and is now directed by The Honor- 
able Louis 0. Guiffrida. FEMA's mission is to focus 
federal effort on preparedness, mitigation, and re- 
sponse to national emergencies encompassing the full 
range of natural and manmade disasters. 

FEMA's educational center, the National Emergency Train- 
ing Center in Emmitsburg, Maryland, includes the Nation- 
al Fire Academy, United States Fire Administration, and 
the Emergency Management Institute. This center is 
headed by The Honorable Fred J. Villella, Associate 
Director of FEMA for Training and Fire Programs. 

To achieve the Academy's legislated mandate to advance 
the professional development of fire service personnel, 
the Field Programs Division has developed an effective 
progran linkage with established fire education systems 
that exist at the state and local level. It is the 
responsibility of this division to support and strengthen 
tuese delivery systems. The National Fire Academy 
field courses have been sponsored by state training 
systems in every state. 

Fire Risk Analysis: A Systems Approach is a specialized 
course dealing with analyzing a community's fire risk 
•and its protection capability. The course intends to 
help a community determine its level of acceptable risk 
and to help the community identify ways to minimize 
that risk. The course references. N.F.P.A. Standard 
1031 . 

The course seeks, within the 12-hour format, to provide 
the student with a working knowledge of risk estimation 
and protection determination that will be helpful at a 
local level. 

The staff of the Training and Fire Programs Directorate 
is proud to join with state and local fire agencies in 
providing educational opportunities to the members of 
the nation's fire and rescue services. 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



Digitized by the Internet Archive 

in 2012 with funding from 

University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign 



http://archive.org/details/fireriskanalysi8315nati 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 

The preparation of this course became possible through 
the assistance, cooperation, and generous sharing of 
time and ideas by many people. I wish to acknowledge 
all of trie following persons who and organizations 
that had a role in the development of this course. 

This course is based on materials and concepts developed 
by the United States Fire Administration Office of 
Public Education (formerly the National Fire Prevention 
and Control Administration). 

Joseph L. Donovan, Superintendent of the National 
Fire Academy; J. Faherty Casey, Deputy Superintendent, 
Field Programs Division, National Fire Academy; and 
Gerry N. Bassett, Acting Director, Materials Development 
Division, National Fire Academy. Their support, inter- 
est, and guidance made the effort possible. 

Karen R. Kent of Requisite, Inc., for invaluable help 
in assisting in the design of the course and in track- 
ing, editing and formatting the materials for the two 
manuals . 

Byron Ghaney, "Chief, Palm Springs, CA; Gordon Routley, 
Special Assistant to the .Chief, Phoenix, AZ ; Larry 
Schneider, Captain, Washington DC Fire Training Academy; 
and Dick Small, Pioneer Pacific Inc.; for their expert 
assistance in suggesting the course content and their 
skills in writing the course materials. 

James Ahern, Donald Begg, Rick Kemenyas , Jack Price Sr., 
and Rosie Ott for their cooperation, creativity and 
excellent work in producing the media package. 

Rae Nacke, Anne Gettig, and Beverly Day of the Energy, 
Management, and Marketing Division, IMR Corporation, 
Falls Church, Virginia, for their excellent editorial 
and production support services in preparing the final 
document. 

Dr. Harry Hickey, University of Maryland, College Park, 
MD; Richard Ulrich, Montgomery Community College, Rock- 
ville, MD; George Kayden, Bloomington, UN; George Oster, 
Iowa State Extension Department, Ames IA; and Fred Brad- 
ley of Gage Babcock and Associates, Reston, VA; for their 
careful reviews of the Phase I and II materials. 



Romey W. Brooks 
NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY Pr ° JeCt ManaRer 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



TABLE OF CONTENTS 



Foreword . 
Acknowledgements 
Table of Contents 
Schedule . 
N.F.P.A. Standards 



1 

iii 

v 

vii 

ix 



Unit I: Introduction 

Objective. ....... 1-1 

Unit II: The Community Fire Protection System 

Objective and Text . . . . . .2-1 

Student Activities ...... 2-13 

Note- taking Guide . . . . . .2-15 

Unit III: The Community At Risk 

Objective and Text ...... 3-1 

Student Activities ..... 3-31 

Note-taking Guide . . . . . 3-85 

Unit IV: Fire Suppression in the Community 

Objective and Text . . . . . .4-1 

Student Activities ..... 4-17 

Note-taking Guide ..... 4-71 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Unit V: Unprotected Risk 

Objective and Text ...... 5-1 

Student Activities ...... 5-7 

Note-taking Guide ...... 5-9 

Unit VI: The Community Experience 

Objective and Text ...... 6-1 

Student Activities ...... 6-9 

Note- taking Guide ..... 6-15 

Appendix A : Forms Used in the Course 
Appendix B: Bibliography 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Schedule 

Day I 

A.M. 

9:00 Unit I: Introduction 3/4 hr. 

9:45 Unit II: The Community Fire 1 1/4 hrs. 

Protection System 

11:00 Unit III: The Community at Risk 5 hrs. 

P.M. 

Lunch 
1:00 Unit III (continued) 
5:00 End of first day 

Day I_I 

A.M. 

8:30 Unit IV: Fire Suppression in 3 hrs. 

the Community 

P.M. 

Lunch 

1:00 Unit V; Unprotected Risk 1 hr. 

2:00 Unit VI: The Community 1 1/2 hr* 

Experience 

3:30 Course Examination 

4:00 Evaluation and Wrap-Up 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



N.F.P.A. Standards 



Generically , the whole course references Fire Officer 
VI, 7-1 and 7-4.1 . 



Specific units reference selected portions of the 
Standards as follows: 

Unit II Fire Officer I: 2-5.1 

2-5.2 
2-6.2 
2-6.3 

Fire Officer III: 4-2.6 
4-9.2 

Fire Officer V: 6-3.5 

Fire Officer VI: 7-2.1 



Unit III. .... Fire Officer I: 2-10.11 

Fire Officer III: 4-2.4 
4-3.1 
4-3.2 
4-3.3 



Unit IV Fire Officer I: 2-10.11 

Fire Officer III: 4-2.4 
. 4-4.7 



Unit VI. Fire Officer V: 6-2.3 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



UNIT I 
INTRODUCTION 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Unit I: Introduce ion 



Obj ective 



The participants will formulate their expectations of 
the course following an overview presented by the 
ins tructor . 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



UNIT II 

THE COMMUNITY 

FIRE PROTECTION 

SYSTEM 



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NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Unit II 



The Community Fire Protection System 



Obj ect ive 

The participants will be able to list the major elements 
of a community fire protection system and describe the 
interrelationships of these elements. 



Systems A system is a set of interacting elements that 

Defined together form an integrated whole. The elements 

are organized to accomplish a purpose or a goal. 

We can think of all kinds of systems: political, 
transportation, computer, etc. In this course, 
each unit is intended to provide you with infor- 
mation which builds upon and is interrelated 
to previous units. The course tries to show 
you a systems approach to fire protection. 




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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



The Hunan A simple but appropriate example of a system is 
Body As A the human body. The interacting elements--di- 
System gestive tract, lungs, heart, etc. --are elements 
that interact and are dependent on the others 
for total integration of the whole. The key 
point to keep in mind as we move toward develop- 
ing the community fire protection system concept 
is that each element of a system is important 
and has some relationship to the other parts of 
the system. In a fire protection system, some 
parts of the the system may have greater impact 
than other parts, yet to be fully and totally 
effective, each part is important and each must 
function for the accomplishment of the total fire 
protection effort. 

The Another example of a system is the automobile. 
Automobile Here again, each element of the system has some 
As A System relationship to the other parts. The fuel which 
explodes forces the pistons to operate. This in 
turn moves the crankshaft. Thus, fuel is a crit- 
ical element without which the system will not 
operate at all. 

Yet, there are different grades of fuel which 
may operate the system, but some will cause the 
system to be less than effective. We can relate 
this fuel grade example to the community fire 
protection system,' in that, if some departments 
or agencies do not accept or recognize their 
system responsibilities, it will not operate as 
effectively as it could. 

Today's fire managers need to have what can be 
called a helicopter perspective, i.e., the abil- 
ity to rise above the rest and see the big pic- 
ture. 

Every community has a fire protection system in 
place. . .right now. Often the elements, depart- 
ments or agencies of that system have either 
been ill defined or not defined at all. 



Fire Too often, fire protection is viewed to be fire 

Protection suppression only. "Fire protection" is used in 

Defined a much larger context than fire suppression. 

Fire protection includes all of the elements 

that are involved in maintaining loss of life, 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



property and community consequence of fire to 
some acceptable level the community desires or 
can afford. Some of these broader aspects in- 
clude : 

Prevention: Code development and enforcement 
Public education/awareness 
Arson investigation 

Control: Fire resistive contruction 

Hazard isolation 

Suppression: Automatic suppression systems 
Detection and alarm devices 
Manual suppression systems 
Investigation 

Acceptable Unless a community has specifically identified 
Levels its acceptable levels of loss and service, it can 
be assumed that the historical loss and service 
levels are, in fact, acceptable. As the histori- 
cal levels of loss and service are more specifi- 
cally defined and made clear to to the community, 
there may emerge a desire to change the acceptable 
loss and service levels. 

Community Traditionally, fire managers have taken too great 

Fire a burden of fire protection upon themselves and 

Protection have not considered fire protection as a ' system . 

System In a good fire protection system, each element is 

aware that it is a part of the system and accepts 

its responsibility. A fire department cannot 

alone provide fire protection. It is time for this 

burden to be shared with others in the system who 

also have some fire protection responsibilities. 

With this definition of a system in mind, let's 
begin to identify those interrelated elements 
that make up a community's fire protection sys- 
tem. Most communities will have a number of the 
same elements in their systems. Some jurisdic- 
tions, however, will have some elements that are 
unique to that community. Thus, each community's 
fire protection system is tailored to that com- 
munity. 



Fire In most jurisdictions, the fire chief is consid- 
Manager ered to be the fire manager. This is the posi- 
Defined tion that generally administers the fire pro- 
tection affairs of the community. However, in 

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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



this course, the term "fire manager" is intended 
to include not only the fire chief, but all staff 
or department positions with fire protection re- 
spons ibility. 

The fire manager's role in the community fire 
protection system is to be the coordinator of the 
system. There are a number of tasks that are 
associated with this role. Some of the key ones 
are: 1) to identify all elements of the system; 
2) to help each element clarify its fire protec- 
tion responsibilities; and 3) to cause each ele- 
ment to agree to and commit to fulfill its system 
responsibilities. 

As a fire manager, you are likely to be the one 
best able to help other departments and agencies 
define and clarify their fire protection respon- 
sibilities. It is important that, in coordinating 
the system, the fire manager maintains a humanis- 
tic and tactful approach. As a fire manager, you 
would likely resent another department telling 
you what your department's responsibility is in 
assisting them . To be an effective systems co- 
ordinator requires ,patience and tact. 



One One possible approach calls for fire managers to 
Possible list those departments and agencies in their corn- 
Approach munity that have a role in fire protection. Once 
each agency is identified, fire managers can then 
spell out the fire protection responsibilities 
for each of the agencies. Each agency is then 
advised what is being done, then asked to review 
the responsibility list and modify It - as neces- 
sary. Fire managers should offer to meet with 
each department to clarify responsibilities that 
have been identified. Each agency should be 
asked to respond in writing when they approve 
their responsibility areas. This will help to 
gain commitment on the part of the department or 
agency. 

This cooperative approach is by far the best; 
however, under certain circumstances the fire 
manager may be forced to bring the issue to the 
administrative head of the organization (city 
manager, county manager, etc.) or directly to 
the legislative body for some review and policy 
direction. Remember, though, it is not possible 
to legislate cooperation. 

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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Uestville Throughout this course, we will be referring to 
Fire the hypothetical community of Westville. Follow- 
Protection ing is an example of the Uestville fire protec- 
System tion system and the fire protection responsibil- 
ities of each part of the system. Keep in mind 
that some of these departments or agencies will 
be the same in your community. However, do not 
overlook specific agencies that need to be a part 
of your unique system. 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



WESTVILLE 

COMMUNITY FIRE PROTECTION 



SYSTEM 




THE GOALS OF THIS FIRE PROTECTION SYSTEM ARE 



To prevent and/o 
damage due to fi 
through the effo 
making up the fi 
duction of Life 
plished through 
resistance and d 
development of f 
tenance of an ad 
fire suppression 



r limit life loss and property 
re. This will be accomplished 
rts of those people and agencies 
re protection system. This re- 
and property loss will be accom- 
code enforcement relative to fire 
ensity of structures, through the 
ire safety attitudes and main- 
equate, well- trained and equipped 
force. 

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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



FIRE PROTECTION SYSTEM 



FOR WESTVILLE 



Fire protection for the City of Westville is not 
the sole funct ion of the fire department, rather 
it is a system made up of many city departments 
and agencies. The fire protection role of each 
city department and agency includes the following 
responsibilities : 

1 . City Council/Manager: 

a. Receives recommendations from the fire 
department and determines the levels of 
services and resources to be provided. 

b. Allocates resources of the total city 
delivery systems and determines municipal 
priorities. 

2 . Fire Department : 

a. Provides information and recommendations 
to the city legislators for their deci- 
sion. 

b. Within budget limitations, maintains a 
well- trained and equipped fire suppres- 
sion force for fire control. 

c. Coordinates and is responsible for public 
fire prevention education programs. 

d. Coordinates the community fire protection 
system. 

e. Provides periodic life safety and fire 
hazard inspection, correction and en- 
forcement program. 

f. Coordinates and provides community emer- 
gency medical service (EMS) program. 

g. Conducts fire cause and arson investiga- 
tions. 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



h. Recommends ordinances and fire safety 
laws to minimize loss of life and property 
by uncontrolled fire. Maintains latest 
fire prevention codes. 

i. Provides review of plans for new construc- 
tion, fire-resistive construction, sepa- 
rations, built-in fire protection, hy- 
drant layouts, apparatus access. 

3 . Municipal Airport : 

a. Within budget limitations, maintains a 
well-trained and equipped crash/fire/res- 
cue force for aircraft emergencies. 

b. During those hours when the airport is 
closed to commercial aircraft, provides 
personnel to implement a second squad for 
suppression operations. 

c. Provides specialized apparatus with light 
water and dry chemical capability, prox- 
imity suits, and a 5,000-gallon tanker. 

4 . Building Department : 

a. Enforces minimum building, plumbing and 
electrical codes. Through the Uniform 
Building Code, a certain level of fire 
resistance is built into structures at 
the time of construction. The primary 
elements of this fire resistance are life 
safety, structural stability and reduc- 
tion of fire hazard of built-in systems 
in structures. 

b. Classifies occupancies and their required 
types of construction to assure that the 
structure meets the fire and life safety 
needs of the occupancy. 

c. Issues occupancy permits which control 
changing occupancies to assure that the 
structure meets the fire protection and 
life safety needs each time the occupancy 
changes . 

d. Coordinates with emergency services on 
assignment of street numbers, names and 



2-8 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



requirements of posting of street num- 
bers. Approval of numbering systems for 
multiple-occupancy developments . 

e. Provides rehabilitation program which 
serves to correct structural deficiencies, 
including fire protection problems in 
older structures. 

f. Maintains up-to-date building codes. 
5 . Engineering Department : 

a. Prepares preliminary layout of fire hy- 
drants and water mains for new street 
development based on fire department 
recommendations . 

b. Considers fire apparatus access (street 
width, turning radius, cul-de-sacs) dur- 
ing street development, based on recom- 
mendations . 

c. Checks water system plans, prepared by 
private consulting engineers, for con- 
formance to fire department regulations. 

d. Provides fire department with utility maps 
for use in prefire planning and emergency 
operations. 

-Sewer System Maps 
-Storm Drain System Maps 

e. Maintains up-to-date city boundary and 
street system maps. 



Water Agency : 

a. Maintains water supply for use in fire 
suppression (fire flows). 

b. Performs periodic inspections of hydrant 
gate valves. 

c. Assures that valving in mains is maintained 
so that maximum fire flow is available. 

d. Maintains and repairs fire hydrants, in- 
cluding flushing, painting and flow 
testing. 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



e. Sends a duty man to greater alarm fires 
to assist in water supply problems. 

f. Maintains records needed to meet insurance 
grading requirements. 

g. Keeps fire Department informed of hydrants 
and water mains which are "out of service." 

h. Provides connections for private fire 
protections systems. Inspects and main- 
tains street valves to assure uninter- 
rupted water supply. 

i. Provides Fire Department with utility maps 
for use in prefire planning and emergency 
operations . 

-Water System Maps 

-Water System Pressure Zone Maps 

7 . Planning Department, Advance Planning, Zoning 

a. Provides information through which future 
fire protection needs can be determined. 

b. Controls design of developments which 
affect: 

-Access to buildings 
-Separation of buildings 

-Open spaces (green areas) which serve as 
fire breaks 

c. Considers fire protection resource needs 
in determining density and types of de- 
velopments . 

d. Develops conservation and open space ele- 
ments to identify potential hazard areas. 

8 . Police Department : 

a. Provides traffic and crowd control at 
emergencies . 

b. Reports fire and fire hazards during 
patrols. 



2-10 



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c. Enforces "NO PARKING" ordinances which ob- 
struct fire protection facilities (fire 
hydrants, fire department connections, 
access routes (public property)). 

d. Assists fire prevention division with fire 
investigations, especially the apprehension 
and prosecution of incendiary fire setters. 
Assists in handling and storing of evidence. 

e. Enforces trespassing laws in designated 
fire areas. 

f. Aero Squadron: 

1 . Provides air reconnaissance of moun- 
tain/canyon areas during brush fire 
operations . 

2. Provides patrol of canyons when closed 
to public due to areas being declared 
a high fire-hazard area. 

g. Communications Center: 

1 . Receives calls for service and dis- 
patches appropriate companies. 

2. Coordinates purchase, testing, and 
repair of all fire department communi- 
cations equipment and maintains' fire 
department communications/alarm records 
records . 

9 . Central Services : 

a. Reproduces written fire safety materials. 

b. Prepares and prints fire prevention infor- 
mation. 

c. Prepares, does layout, and reproduces 
reports . 

d. Prepares transparencies and other visual 
aids . 

10. General Services: 



a. Shop Division 
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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



1 . Performs preventive maintenance. 

2. Performs emergency Repairs. 

3. Performs refueling and repairs at 
emergency scene. 

4. Performs fabrication of equipment. 

5. Performs repair and maintenance of 
power tools. 

6. Assists in preparation of apparatus 
and vehicle specifications. 

7. Trains personnel on proper operation 
of apparatus and equipment. 

b. Building Maintenance: 

1 . Performs maintenance of emergency 
generators . 

2. Performs maintenance on fire depart- 
ment facilities. 

3. Provides advice on preventive main- 
tenance program. 

1 1 . Private Developers : 

a. Provide adequate set of new construction 
plans for fire department review to insure 
all fire and life safety codes are being 
met. Installs fire protections systems 
as required. 

b. Cooperate with fire department in meet- 
ing local code requirements to minimize 
long-range effect of new construction. 

c. Provide 8 X 10 readable plot plans on 
larger developments for fire department 
response books. 

Summary Providing fire protection service involves many 
departments and agencies. Every community has a 
fire protection system, although often the players 
in the system have not been defined. The modern 
fire manager is responsible for clarifying and 
coordinating the community fire protection system. 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



INDIVIDUALIZED ACTIVITY 



Name of jurisdiction: 



Fire protection for a community is not the sole function 
or responsibility of the fire department. Rather, it is 
a system made up of many departments and agencies. 

Write a list of the departments or agencies involved in 
your community fire protection system. 

1. 9. 



2. 10 



1 1 



4. 12 



13 



14 



7. 15 



On the next page, for each of the departments or agencies 
you indicated above, write two or three fire protection 
responsibilities you think belong to that group. 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Agency or Departmental Fire Protection Duties 

9. 



2. 10 



3. 11 



5. 13 



6. 14 



15 



16. 



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Unit II: The Community Fire Protection System 



I. Systems 

A. Definition 



B. Purpose 



C. Benefits 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



D. System operation 

L. Hot well defined 



2 . Elements not always evident 



3. Change possible 



4. Systems everywhere 



E. Fire protection as a system 
1. Purpose 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



2. Broader picture 



II. Community Fire Protection 
A. Definition 



R. Considerations 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 

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1. Common elements 



2. Variations 



C. Levels of protection 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



IV. The fire manager 

A. System coordinator 



Part of management team 



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FIRE RiGK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



UNIT III 

THE COMMUNITY 

AT RISK 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Unit: III: The Community at Risk 



Obj ective 

The participants will be able to define fire risk, class- 
ify different types of risk and estimate fire risk using 
specific measurement tools. 



I. Background 

Loss Potential loss measures both the likelihood that 
an unwanted event will occur and the magnitude of 
the loss when it does occur. While we cannot 
predict when a loss-producing event will occur, 
we can, with some degree of certainty, say that 
it is more likely to occur, in one building than 
in another. The magnitude of the loss is pre- 
dictable if we will just take the time to analyze 
the probable • events sequence and evaluate every- 
thing which can be lost or damaged during the 
incident . 

All loss sustained will be within three categor- 
ies: life, property and community consequences. 
Determining the potential for loss in each ' of 
these categories is the first step toward under- 
standing the community's fire risk problem. 

Target Fire departments have long known which buildings 
Hazard are the most likely to sustain a major loss. 
These target hazards have, in the past, been de- 
fined rather loosely and casually as "buildings 
having a high life or dollar loss potential," or 
as "any building with a high potential for having 
a fire." Let's refine these somewhat and say 
that a target hazard is "any building or area 
which presents an undue challenge or risk to the 
fire suppression force or community as a whole." 
This challenge or risk is manifested by: 

1. The potential for life loss; 

2. The impact of dollar loss; or 

3. A loss of community pride or esteem through 
NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 

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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



the loss of an important historical, religious 
or political shrine. 

This challenge or risk may be due to: 

1 . Danger to the surrounding areas from escaping 
dangerous products or contaminated run-off 
water; 

2. The quantity of resources (men, equipment, 
water, etc.) needed to control the incident; 

3. An extreme difficulty in mounting an attack 
due to problems of access, fuel loading, 
occupancy, construction or other factors; or 

4. The importance of the function to the community 
(a vital wooden railroad bridge, the building- 
housing the town's water pump or a large tele- 
phone exchange. 

Geographic areas with no set boundaries can also 
be evaluated as target hazards. Highway intersec- 
tions, railroad grade crossings, and sections of 
highway with limited access and/or water supply 
problems are some of the more common examples. 



Risk A simple definition of risk is the potential 
vulnerability to fire with the possibility of 
loss, injury, disadvantage or destruction. Risk 
is measured by determining what can be destroyed 
by fire and the consequences of that fire in terms 
of property, life, and community loss. To deter- 
mine fire risk, the questions "who, what, where, 
why, and when" need to be answered. 

Who and What 

In considering the risk presented by a target 
hazard, the twin questions of who and what define 
the extent of the problem. Is the problem, in 
terms of fire or escaping products, going to 
endanger anyone or anything outside of the imme- 
diate area? This will determine the physical 



limits of the problem 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Where 

In order to answer "where," two different answers 
are required which go back to a most basic under- 
standing of the meaning of target hazard. We 
want to know where the fire will, or is most like- 
ly to occur. We also need to judge where the im- 
pact of the incident will be felt. Will it be 
lives, money or pride? The fact that a fire oc- 
curs is evidence that the fire protection system 
is not working as well as it should. When a fire 
department publishes its annual statistics, it in- 
dicates by its number of runs and amount of fire 
loss how well it is doing its primary job of pre- 
venting fire. As firefighters, we generally take 
pride (incorrectly) in the number of responses we 
make although we are embarrassed (justifiably) by 
the mounting fire loss. 

Wh 



The "why" answer should also cover two facets of 
the problem. The first, and most important is 
why did the fire occur in the first place? This 
will not be covered in this course but can be 
answered in terms of public fire education and 
adequate fire codes. The second phase of the 
answer tells us why the fire suppression -forces 
will have, or did have, problems controlling the 
situation. This will be in terms of adequacy of 
codes and their enforcement and the overall 
ability and preparedness of the fire suppression 
forces to handle the situation. 

When 

The last question of "when" is the one for which 
we have no answer. As mentioned earlier, we 
cannot predict when a fire will occur. We can 
only say that it is more likely to occur in one 
building than in another. We also know that our 
skill at making those predictions is not what 
we would like it to be. 



The PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT 
times 
the PREDICTABLE OUTCOME 
equals 
RISK to life, property, community 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Risk Risk can be modified by several factors: 
lodif iers 

• Condi tion of building , i.e., age, housekeeping, 
maintenance . 

• Fixed protection systems, i.e., detection, 
alarm, standpipes. 

• Construction factors, i.e., height, access 
barriers (roads, windowless building), air 
handling systems, vertical openings. 

• Code enforcement, i.e., fire education and 
training brigades, fire safety awareness. 

Some of these are risk increasers while others 
act as risk reducers. The fine tuning they give 
the overall risk evaluation is important, if for 
no other reason because it forces us to consider 
these factors in an analytical way and not just 
as items on a check list. 



Fire Inherent in the measurement of risk is the impli- 
Fighting cation that it can be moderated by outside inter- 
Systems vention. In the event of fire, this is by the 
fire department and/or fixed protection systems 
within the building. Systems which can be in- 
stalled within buildings can be classified as 
either active or passive systems. Most active 
systems (sprinkler or other fire extinguishing 
systems) also act as passive (detection) systems. 
When the system is activated, an alarm is trans- 
mitted so additional help can be obtained. A pas- 
sive system, on the other hand, merely sends noti- 
fication of a fire. While this ensures an early 
response by the fire fighting forces, it takes 
no part in the control of the problem. 

There is one passive system which does not detect 
the fire but which can aid in its control. Stand- 
pipe systems reduce the time and effort required 
to get lines into position, thereby reducing 
fatigue on the part of the firefighters and 
allowing an attack to be made at the earliest 
possible moment. It must be remembered that 
detection and standpipe systems are not considered 
to be risk reducers since they take no active 
part in the actual extinguishment process, though 
they can be expected to reduce loss. As we 
shall see,- sprinkler systems are given credit 



3-4 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



for actually reducing the anount of risk within 
a building. 

The total fire fighting capability which can be 
brought to bear on a fire is the sum of the fire 
department's total effort and the sprinkler sys- 
tem. The fixed system, while always in place and 
fast acting, is "fixed" in as much as its total 
capability is limited and it cannot be moved. 

The fire department, on the other hand, can 
increase its capability through call-backs or 
requests for mutual aid. It also has the ability 
to reposition itself or adjust its method and 
intensity of attack. However, even, with this 
flexibility, the fire department is limited by 
its water supply, manpower and the total resources 
it has or can draw upon. 

Fire The thought of going out and making a pre-in- 

Manage- cident assessment of every building in town is 

ment enough to make the staff lose its enthusiasm for 

Areas the task. While it may be a laudable goal, it is 

not a practical first step and is not necessary. 

If a sufficient number of representative buildings 

can be identified, the desired information can be 

gained with minimal effort. This will also reduce 

the paperwork to a level which will not overload 

the system and cause its failure. The- question 

is: How do we find our representative samples? 

The answer is found in Fire Management Areas also 

known as FllA's. 

Fire management areas are artificial subdivisions 
of the area for which the fire department is 
charged with providing protection. These divi- 
sions may be based on any parameters the fire 
department wishes to choose. Some of the most 
common are grid systems, geographic boundaries, 
response areas, land use, environmental barriers, 
population density, construction and previous fire 
experience. While each has advantages and disad- 
vantages, the final decision will have to reflect 
what is best for the fire department and the com- 
munity. Large urban departments may also elect 
to choose fire response areas, while smaller de- 
partments protecting large areas may choose land 
use. In some situations, geographic boundaries 
may be chosen. 

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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



If rigid divisions or boundaries do not already 
exist, or the existing ones are not practical 
or desirable to use, a grid system would be the 
logical choice. The use of a grid insures that 
all fire management areas are a standard size 
which can easily be managed by the fire depart- 
ment . 



Gridding Since a grid system is completely arbitrary, it 
does have some important features. It is impos- 
sible, using any of the other parameters, to pro- 
duce areas which are consistent in size and 
reflect a desired criteria. Also, as time passes, 
the conditions within areas (population density, 
construction type, etc.) change. Once the condi- 
tions within the area have changed, it no longer 
is a valid model of the criteria it is supposed 
to reflect. 

Once the areas are defined, the responsibility 
for gathering data and conducting the risk assess- 
ments within each area must be assigned. In some 
cases, a single area' will be assigned its own team. 
In others, one team will be responsible for sev- 
eral areas. The data required from each area in- 
cludes average available fire flow, response time 
to and within the area, construction and occupancy 
types, previous fire loss statistics and other 
factors which may help define the problem and sug- 
gest solutions. 



Identify All potential target hazards must be identified 
Target within each F.tl.A. based on previously selected 
Hazards criteria (the definition of target hazard). The 
most severe are selected for a pre-incident risk 
analysis. In most cases, three to five target 
hazards per fire management area are enough to 
gain an understanding of the degree and type of 
risk which exists in each F.tl.A. and, when combined 
with the results from the other areas, will give 
the same information for the community as a whole. 
If more than five hazards need to be addressed in 
any one F.M.A. , either the selection process is 
not working properly or the area needs to be 
reduced in size. 

Ideally, each team will include people knowledge- 
able in local building codes, fire safety codes 
and fire suppression techniques. In this way, they 

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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



can contribute toward better risk interpretations. 
When fire suppression personnel are used to make 
the survey, they must be trained to recognize 
important life safety factors and code deviations. 



II. Calculating Needed Fire Flow 

Needed One of the most basic and useful tools available 
Fire to the fire manager is the needed fire flow for a 
Flow given building. The needed fire flow is the 
amount of water needed to extinguish a fire in an 
occupancy. In most cases , the fire flow calcu- 
lated is beyond that which is needed to control a 
fire. However, consideration is given to a mar- 
gin of safety which may be needed under some cir- 
cumstances. This flow is always given in gallons 
per minute and may be required for a protracted 
period of time. 

The needed fire flow allows the fire loss manager 
to study his resource needs in terms of manpower, 
water, and apparatus BEFORE THE INCIDENT. If a 
given volume of water is required, it is rather 
simple to calculate the number of men required to 
man the requisite number of lines of the proper 
size. Consider the following example: 

If the needed flow is 250 gpm , a minimum of three 
men would be needed on one 2-1/2 inch line or two 
men on each of two 1-1/2 inch lines. The deci- 
sion on maneuverability, effective reach of 
2-1/2 inch lines versus 1-1/2 inch lines, time 
required to place in service, and other tactical 
considerations will have to be made based on 
local conditions. While figuring out the man- 
power needed, ventilation, search, rescue, com- 
mand functions, pump operations, and other 
ancillary functions must also be figured in. 

Fire Two methods will be employed for the calculation 
Flow of needed fire flow. These will give widely dif- 
Estimation ferent answers which are to be used under differ- 
ent conditions. The first is the basic cubic 
foot formula and will be used for an initial 
attack. The second method presupposes total in- 
volvement in what will become a long-term incident. 

The cubic foot formula is based on the ability of 
water to absorb heat and turn to steam. (Since 
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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



this information is available in more depth in 
other National Fire Academy courses, only an over- 
view will be given here.) The cubic foot capacity 
of the largest single area in the building is cal- 
culated. The number of cubic feet is then divided 
by 200 to obtain the total number of gallons of 
water needed for extinguishment. By experimenta- 
tion, it has been found that maximum extinguishment 
efficiency is gained if the water is applied at 
the hottest part of the area involved in no more 
than 30 seconds. 



Example If the number of cubic feet is divided by 100, 
the answer represents the gallon per minute flow 
required for 30 seconds. For example, an area 
of 70' x 80' x 10' = 56,000 cubic feet. When this 
is divided by 200, one gets 280 total gallons. 
If it is divided by 100, the answer is 560 gal- 
lons per minute for 30 seconds or 280 gallons, of 
water. If this rate of application (560 gpm) 
cannot be maintained for 30 seconds, it is very 
likely that the fire will not be extinguished 
and in fact it may become more difficult to 
extinguish. The water supply, supply lines, at- 
tack lines and manpower requirements for 560 
gpm must be set up, even if the flow is only for 
30 seconds. This fast-attack formula should give 
the fire department control of the fire. If 
something does not work properly and control is 
not gained, then the sustained attack formula 
must be used. 



Alternate The alternate formula for calculating fire flow 

Method is a bit more complicated, but not impossible. 

The step-by-step process is combined with the 

Fire Flow Estimate Form so that the entire guide 

can be copied and reused. 

The purpose of this guide is to provide fire pro- 
tection managers with a step-by-step system for 
calculating "Required Fire Flow" for targeted 
buildings or groups of buildings. Required Fire 
Flow is the water flow needed for fire fighting 
purposes to confine a major fire to a building 
or group of buildings. 

The system presented here is based upon the Insur- 
ance Service Office's Guide for Determination 
of Required Fire Flow (I.S.O.). This procedure 
has been simplified for field use. 

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Accurate completion of the form is essential. 
The following information is keyed to correspond- 
ing parts of the form. 

The "Guide For Determining Needed Fire Flow" 
begins on the next page. 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



GUIDE FOR DETERMINING NEEDED FIRE FLOW 
(Use the Fire Flow Estimate Form with this Guide.) 



BLOCK A: BASIC INFORMATION 



Occupancy Name: Self-explanatory 

Classification: The occupancy classification 

should conform with the local 
building code. 

Occupancy Address: Self-explanatory. 

F.M.A. : The fire management area in which the 
occupancy is located. 

Calculated by: Name of person(s) calculating 
the fire flow. 

Estimated Fire Flow: Final calculated estimate. 



BLOCK B: TYPE OF CONSTRUCTION 

The following examples will help identify the 
various types of construction. If you are unable 
to determine construction type, obtain the needed 
information from the Fire Prevention Division or 
refer to N.F.P.A. 220, Standard Types of Building 
Construction '. 

Fire Resistive 

The structural elements in fire resistive build- 
ings shall be of steel, iron, concrete or masonry. 
Walls and permanent partitions shall be of non- 
combustible fire-resistive construction. 

Non - Combus tible 

All metal construction, including frame, siding 
and roof, or metal and masonry. 

Heavy Timber 

Heavy timber structural elements. Permanent par- 
titions and members of the structural frame may 
be of other materials, provided they have a fire 
resistance of not less than one hour. 

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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Ordinary 

Buildings with masonry or concrete load bearing 
walls. Roof and floor assemblies are combustible 
cons truction. 

Wood Frame 

Wood frame denotes the structural frame of build- 
ings and does not concern itself with what is 
used to cover the frame on the interior or ex- 
terior. 

Mixed 

Any combination of construction types within, a 
single structure. Use the predominant construct- 
ion type. 



BLOCK C: DETERMINE EFFECTIVE FLOOR AREA 



Express the area of the largest floor area in 
square feet . 

Add: 

a) 50% of all other floor areas EXCEPT for fire 
resistive construction; 

b) 25% of the two largest successive floor areas 
for fire resistive construction with vertical 
openings; 

c) 50% of EIGHT (8) largest successive floors for 
fire resistive construction with unprotected 
vertical openings. 



Notes 

1 . Buildings side by side having openings bet- 
ween them or separate buildings with unpro- 
ted connections are considered a single fire 
area. 

2. Sections of buildings separated by standard 
fire walls shall be considered separate fire 
areas . 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



LOCK D 



DETERMINE BASE FIRE FLOW 

In Table 1 , BASE FIRE FLOW, found on the next 
page, locate the range within which the area (C) 
falls in the column corresponding to the type 
of construction. Read the corresponding "Base 
Fire Flow" in the left-hand column. If the area 
of the building falls in between the square feet 
on the table, use the higher square feet on the 
table. 

For example, a wood frame ciilding with an ef- 
fective area of 7,000 square feet falls between 
6,200 square feet and 7,/00 square feet on the 
table. The Base Fire Flow will be 2,250 GPM, 
equivalent to 7,700 square feet. 

Enter the Base Fire Flow, obtained from Table 
1 in the TOTALS COLUMN, line (D). 

There will be some exceptions, however. 



The base fire flow shall not exceed 



8,000 GPM for wood frame or ordinary 
construction. 

6,000 GPM for fire resistive or all 
metal construction. 

6,000 GPM for single story building re- 
gardless of type of construction. 



BLOCK E: OCCUPANCY FACTOR ADJUSTMENT 

For buildings with unusually high or low fire 
loading credits or charges up to 25% of base 
fire flow may be subtracted or added. 

Select the adjustment for the occupancy classi- 
fication which mor ". closely resembles the build- 
ing under consideration. This block will be 
used to make appropriate adjustments. 

Calculate the adjustment. If HIGH risk add the 
amount to Line (D) ; if LOW risk, subtract the 
amount from Line (D) . Enter the new adjusted 
total in the TOTALS COLUMN, line (E). 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



TABLE 1 : BASE FIRE FLOW 



Fire Area (in square feet) for Various Construction Types 



Base 


Fire 


Non- 


Ordinary* or 


Wood 


Fire Flow 


Resistive 


Combustible 


Heavy Timber 


Frame 


500 


3,300 


1 ,900 


1 ,200 


500 


750 


6,600 


3,700 


2,400 


1 ,100 


1 ,000 


10,900 


6,100 


3,900 


1 ,700 


1 ,250 


16,200 


9,100 


5,800 


2,600 


1 ,500 


22,700 


12,700 


8,200 


3,600 


1 ,750 


30,200 


17,000 


10,900 


4,800 


2,000 


38,700 


21 ,800 


13,900 


6,200 


2,250 


48,300 


27,200 


17,400 


7,700 


2,500 


59,000 


33,200 


21 ,300 


9,400 


2,750 


70,900 


39,700 


25,500 


11 ,300 


3,000 


83,700 


47,100 


30,100 


13,400 


3,250 


97,700 


54,900 


35,200 


15,600 


3,500 


112,700 


63,400 


40,600 


18,000 


3,750 


128,700 


72,400 


46,400 


20,600 


4,000 


145,900 


82,100 


52,500 


23,300 


4,250 


164,200 


92,400 


59,100 


26,300 


4,500 


183,400 


103,100 


66,000 


29,300 


4,750 


203,700 


114,600 


73,300 


32,600 


5,000 


225,200 


126,700 


81 ,100 


36,000 


5,250 


247,700 


139,400 


89,200 


39,600 


5,500 


271 ,200 


152,600 


97,700 


43,400 


5,750 


295,900 


166,500 


106,500 


47,400 


6,000 


greater 


greater 


115,800 


51,500 


6,250 






125,500 


55,700 


6,500 






135,500 


60,200 


6,750 






145,800 


64,800 


7,000 






156,700 


69,600 


7,250 






167,900 


74,600 


7,500 






179,400 


79,800 


7,750 






191 ,400 


85,100 


8,000 






greater 


greater 



*Fire flow not to exceed 6,000 gpm in one-story 
buildings not exceeding 16 feet in height. 

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3-13 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Low Fire Load 
Occupancy Type Suggested Credits 

1. Storage of metal products, non- - 25% 

combustibe goods 

2. Vacant buildings - 25% 

3. Office buildings - 15% 

4. Hotels, motels, dormitories - 15% 

5. Residential occupancies - 15% 

6. Health care occupancies - 15% 

Ordinary Fire Load 
Occupancy Type Suggested Credits 

1 . Stores No adjustment 

2. Business/storage occupancies No adjustment 

High Fire Load 
Occupancy Type Suggested Credits 

1. Storage of wood products, + 15% 

furniture, etc. 

2. Storage of plastics, tires, + 20% 

flammable products 

3. High piled storage (over 21 feet) + 25% 

BLOCK F: DETERMINE EXPOSURE ADJUSTMENT 

Additional water supply, expressed as a percent- 
age of occupancy fire flow (E) , is charged for 
structures exposed by the fire area. The percent- 
age of actual adjustment for each "face" is 
based upon distance and the following factors: 

1. The height, area, and construction of the 
building(s) being exposed. 

2. The separation (distance) and openings in 
the exposed building(s). 

3. The length of exposure. 

4. The provision of automatic sprinklers and/or 
outside sprinklers in the exposed building(s). 

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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



5. The effect of hillside locations on the pos- 
sible spread of fire. 

This is a judgment item based on separation dis- 
tance, length and heigth of the exposed face, 
type of construction and openings. A range of 
adjustment factors is provided. The selection 
of the factor to be used for each face is left 
to the discretion of the user, based on observed 
conditions . 

The percentage applied should reflect actual con- 
ditions, but not exceed the percentage listed in 
the guide. 

The total percentage of adjustment should not 
exceed 75%. 

To determine the GPM adjustment, multiply the 
occupancy fire flow (E) by the percent of ad- 
justment. 

Enter the result in the TOTALS COLUMN, Line 
(F). 



BLOCK G: COMPUTE ESTIMATED FIRE FLOW REQUIRED 

If less than 500 GPM, enter 500 GPM. 

If greater than 12,000 GPM, enter 12,000 GPM. 

If less than 2,500 GPM, round off to the nearest 
250 GPM. 

If greater than 2,500 GPM, round off to the 
nearest 500 GPM. 

Enter this final figure in the TOTALS COLUMN, 
line (I). Also enter it on Line 3 of BLOCK A. 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



FIRE FLOW ESTIMATE FORM 



BLOCK A: BASIC INFORMATION 

Occupancy Name 

Address 



Classification 

F.M.A. 



Calculated by 



Est. F.F. 



GPM 



BLOCK B: DETERMINE TYPE OF CONSTRUCTION (Circle one) 
Fire Resistive heavy Timber Ordinary Masonry or Concrete 
Non-Combus tible Wood Frame Mixed (Use predominant type) 



BLOCK C: DETERMINE EFFECTIVE AREA 

Largest floor area 

(sq. ft.) 
Add: a) 50% of all other floor areas 

except for fire resistive 

construction; 

b) 25% of two largest successive 
floor areas for fire resistive 
construction with vertical 
separations ; 

c) 50% of eight largest successive 
floors for fire resistive 
construction with unprotected 
vertical openings. 



(sq. ft.) 



TOTALS 
COLUMN 



total 
sq.ft. (C) 



BLOCK D: DETERMINE BASE FIRE FLOW 

Select the correct GPM figure from Table 1 . GPM (D) 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



A 
D 
C J 



BLOCK E: DETERMINE OCCUPANCY 
FACTOR ADJUSTMENT 



Step 1 : Select a high or low fire 
load factor up to 25% 



Step 2: Multiply (D) by this 
factor. 



Step 3: If HIGH RISK, add the 
amount to (D) ; if LOW 
RISK subtract from (D) . 

NEW ADJUSTED TOTAL 



GPM (E) 



A 
E D 
X J 
P U 
S 
S T 
U M 
R E 
E N 

T 



BLOCK F: DETERMINE EXPOSURE 
ADJUSTMENT 

Using the tables 
below, enter the 
separation and the 
adjustment for each 
of the building's 
four "faces." 



Separation 
in Feet 


Adjustment 
Range 


Expo- 
sure 


Sep. 
Feet 


Adj. 


0-10 
11 - 30 
31 - 60 
61 - 100 


15 - 25% 

10 - 20% 

7-15% 

5-10% 


North 






East 






South 






West 













Total adjust- 
ment (not more 
than 75%) 



Multiply (E) by this percentage. 



NEW ADJUSTED TOTAL 



GPM (F) 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



BLOCK G: TOTAL REQUIRED FIRE FLOW 

II If less than 500 GPM, enter 

11 500 GPM. 

11 If greater than 12,000 GPM, 

11 enter 12,000 GPM. 

II If less than 2,500 GPM, 

11 round off (H) to the nearest 

11 250 GPM. 

11 If greater than 2,500 GPM, 

II round off (H) to the nearest 

11 500 GPM. 



TOTAL REQUIRED FIRE FLOW ROUNDED OFF = 



GPM (G) 



(ENTER TOTAL ON LINE 
THREE, BLOCK A) 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



III. Estimating Life Risk 

Estimating The following information is presented in a form 
Life Risk that is meant to be useful to persons conducting 
surveys which evaluate life risk. 

Understanding all the factors influencing life 
safety in buildings is a complex study in building 
construction and human behavior. Yet, there is a 
need for a less complicated way to estimate poten- 
tial life loss should fire occur in target occu- 
pancies . 

It is recognized that a simple system may only 
bring to light potential problems and will not 
necessarily provide a thorough understanding of 
the risk or causes of the risk. If potential 
problems are identified, further analysis by qual- 
ified and competent personnel will likely be nec- 
essary. The following guide presents a system 
by which life risk estimates can be quantified. 

Five In this system, buildings are classified into one 
Levels of five potential risk levels based on key safety 
of Risk factors which may be incorporated into the build- 
ing. Once the building has been categorized into 
one of the five risk levels, the actual number of 
lives at risk from a single fire incident can be 
theoretically projected. While the life loss in 
a particular fire may be more or less, historical 
data from actual case studies indicates that the 
estimates will provide a good indication of the 
risk to occupants. 

No attempt has been made to estimate the potential 
life loss from fires occurring as a result of ma- 
jor or gross disasters such as earthquakes, plane 
crashes and explosions. 

Fire rescue and suppression capability can have a 
significant impact on the number of lives lost as 
a result of a given fire incident. However, 
there are many conditions that could render the 
fire department ineffective in terms of life loss 
such as delayed alarm or delayed response. 

Life safety is much more dependent on the charac- 
teristics of the building and built-in safety 
features than on the ability of any fire depart- 
ment to provide search and rescue. 

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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Therefore, in the system suggested, the potentia 
risk is based upon building factors such as exi 
capacity, structural fire resistance, smoke cor. 
trol, suppression and detection systems. 

This information should provide fire manager 
with a good indication of the life risk factor 
which could be expected in a real fire situatic 
at the target hazard. This must be considered i 
relation to the number of occupants, whether the 
would be asleep or awake, their physical capabi 
lities and the necessary commitment of fire sup 
pression personnel for search and rescue. 

This is an attempt to give community fire pre 
tection managers a guide for estimating the vul 
nerability to loss of life in selected buila 
ings. It will need considerable refinement i 
the future as experience provides additional ir. 
formation for improvement of the system. I 
cannot substitute for professional fire protect 
ion engineerieng analysis and should not be use 
for calculating risk in health care facilitie 
where the physical or mental capacities of th 
occupants, are impaired. For health care facili 
ties, reference the Office of Planning and Educa 
tion, U.S.F.A., FEMA Guide, "Fire Safety Evalua 
tion System for Health Care Facilities." 

The "Life Risk Analysis Guide" begins on the ne> 
page. 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



3-20 NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



LIFE RISK ANALYSIS GUIDE 



STEP 1 SELECT LIFE LOSS TARGET HAZARDS 

In this first step, the occupancies that will be 
targeted for analysis will be selected. In 
smaller communities, all buildings which may- 
appear to be potentially hazardous to multiple 
life loss may be selected. On the other hand, 
in larger communities, only a typical sample 
may be surveyed, dependent upon resources and 
the number of potential risks. 

Definition of Life Loss Target Hazard 

The potential life loss risk levels may cause 
different concerns in different communities. It 
may be helpful to establish parameters for your 
community to use as a guide in selecting target 
buildings. Three sample definitions are listed 
below. The first prescribes a very broad inter- 
pretation, the second a severity interpretation, 
and the third a more specific occupancy selection. 

Sample One: Any building in which a fire may 
occur and cause multiple life loss 
or injuries. 

Sample Two: Any building in which a fire may 
occur and place more than X people 
in potential jeopardy. 

Sample Three: Any multiple residential occupancy 
with interior exit corridors and 
and in which fire may cause 
multiple loss of life or injuries. 

Once the target hazards have been identified, 
they should be organized in a systematic way by 
occupancy and fire management zone. 



STEP 2 ORGANIZING THE SURVEY TEAM 

After the target buildings have been selected, a 
survey team(s) should be organized. Again, in 
communities where only a small number of buildings 
are to be surveyed, one team may be sufficient. 
If there are many target buildings, it may be 
desirable to form a number of survey teams. 

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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Each team should have two or three members. 
Ideally, a team would include people knowledgeable 
in local building codes, fire safety codes and 
fire suppression techniques. In this way, they 
can contribute jointly toward better risk inter- 
pretations . 

Where necessary, fire suppression personnel may 
be used to make the surveys. In this case they 
should be trained in recognizing the important 
life safety factors and deviations that may make 
them ineffective. 



STEP 3 CONDUCTING THE SURVEYS 

As was stated before, this guide should not be 
used for evaluating health care facilities where 
the physical or mental capacities of the occupants 
may be impaired or where the freedom of the 
occupants is restricted. Also, large assembly 
areas such as gymnasiums, auditoriums or large 
work areas may need special consideration. 

In these occupancies, attention should be given 
to the potential of a fire blocking exit ways. 
No one fire should be able to block facilities to 
the extent of inhibiting orderly egress from the 
building. Where questions arise relating to life 
safety in any existing occupancy, a nationally 
recognized fire and life safety code should be 
used. For example, there is the National Fire 
Protection Association's "Life Safety Code," No. 
101 . 

Where occupancies or portions of occupancies are 
separated from others by a two-hour fire separation 
wall, they may be considered as a separate occu- 
pancy. 

Care should be exercised in determining the in- 
tegrity of exit facilities. 

In making life risk surveys there are four pri- 
mary safety factors that need to be evaluated. 

1 . Building Code Requirements 

Is the building constructed and maintained in 
accordance with a current edition of a nationally 
recognized building code? 

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3-22 NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Deviations which may render required safety 
features ineffective: 

o Unprotected openings between floors. 

o Unprotected openings in fire walls. 

o Smoke or fire doors blocked open. 

o Inoperative fire alarms. 

o Exit corridor penetrations (transoms, venti- 
lators, etc.). 

o Hazardous area enclosures penetrated (boiler 
rooms, incinerators, etc.). 

o Altered ventilation systems. 

o Storage or handling of hazardous materials not 
permitted by the code. 

o Obstructed exit corridors or stairways. 

o Locked exit doors. 

2. Automatic Water Sprinkler Protection 

Is the building fully protected by an automatic 
sprinkler system protecting all portions of the 
building and installed in accordance with the 
requirements of a nationally recognized fire code? 

Does the building have a partial automatic sprink- 
ler system protecting all exit ways, stairways, 
open areas ancillary to the exit ways, and haz- 
ardous areas in, the building? 

3. Automatic Products of Combustion Detection 
System 

Are all portions of the building protected by 
a products of combustion detection system in- 
stalled in accordance with a nationally recog- 
nized fire code? 

4. Exit Facilities 

Are exits and exit ways provided in accordance 
with a nationally recognized code, without devia- 
tions? Do all occupied areas have exits of suf- 
ficient capacity leading directly to the outside 
and to ground level in a manner so a fire that 
occurs within the building could not jeopardize 
exit facilities for any area? 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 3-23 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



STEP 4 CLASSIFYING LIFE RISK 



Assessment of life risk must take into account 
several different factors. One of the major con- 
cerns involves the number of occupants and their 
ability to safely exit from the building without 
assistance. Very young or elderly occupants 
would indicate a higher life risk than other age 
groups. Those with physical or mental impair- 
ments would present a greater risk. Crowded oc- 
cupancies place more people in danger, increasing 
the total life risk. 

Another major concerns in life risk is the use 
of the building. In residential type occupancies 
the occupants would be anticipated to be aspleep 
during a significant part of the time. This fact 
that they are not awake and alert, able to detect 
and react quickly to a fire situation, greatly 
increases the danger to these persons. Early 
warning smoke detection and alarm systems are key- 
factors in compensating for the added risk. 

In making an assessment of life risk, the factors 
of numbers, age, condition and activities, of . the 
occupants must be taken into account. Fire of- 
ficers should project anticipated fire conditions 
on the need for search and rescue personnel to 
rapidly remove endangered occupants. The life 
risk assessment should consider whether or not 
it is even feasible for the occupants to escape 
from anticipated fire conditions, with or without 
fire department assistance. 

The following system is intended to be used as a 
guideline to categorize life risk. Experienced 
personnel may decide to place a building in a 
higher or lower classification due to particular 
circumstances or factors. 



Life The actual classification of life risk is done 
Risk using the Life Risk Matrix and the accompanying 
Rating directions that follow. 

The first thing to look at are the exit arrange - 
ments . Categorize these exit arrangements into 
one of three basic groupings: 

1 . All areas have direct exits to the exterior 
of the building at ground level or via outside 

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GMiMaHaaiMHn*^inBaniBnBnnHna^HBHHHHni^HHHaaBBBnHi 

3-24 NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



corridors and stairways. 

2. The building has exits complying with or equi- 
valent to a current edition of a nationally 
recognized code with access to exits via the 
interior corridors. 

3. The exit facilities do not comply with or are 
not equivalent to a current edition of a 
nationally recognized code. 



The next set of things to consider are the pro- 
tection requirements. 

1 . The building is fully sprinklered and fully 
covered by a products of combustion detection/ 
alarm system. 

2. The building is fully sprinklered or fully 
covered by a products of combustion detection/ 
alarm system. 

3. The exit corridors are sprinklered and all the 
sleeping areas are protected by products of 
combustion detection equipment. 

4. The products of combustion detection systems 
are provided in sleeping areas only. 

5. The ■ structure has manually activated fire 
alarm system only. 

6-. No early warning system is provided. 



The third set of considerations deals with the 
actual categories used to evaluate life risk. A 
brief descripton of each follows. 

Very Low Risk 

These are buildings that present little or no 
identifiable risk due to very low occupancy or 
very high level of built-in protection. 

There are buildings which are never occupied by 
more than occupants at any one time. A 

community may determine the appropriate number 
based on local circumstances. 

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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



OR 

These are single story buildings with direct 
exits to the exterior at ground level from every 
occupied area, fully protected by a products 
of combustion detection system. 

OR 

These are buildings fully protected with both 
automatic sprinklers and products of combustion 
detection systems and exits complying with a 
nationally recognized code. 



Low Risk 

These are buildings that present low life risk 
because of inherent features of the building 
including construction, suppression, detection, 
and exit facilities. 



Medium. Risk 

These are buildings that may present significant 
life risk to the occupants in the area of the 
fire. 



High Risk 

These are buildings that may present undue risk 
to occupants of the fire floor and areas adjacent 
to the fire. 

These are buildings in which occupants are not 
provided with adequate early warning and/or fire 
conditions may compromise their access to exits. 



Very High Risk 

These are buildings which present undue risk to 
occupants of the fire floor and areas above the 
fire floor. 

These are buildings which do not provide safe exits 
from all areas and would endanger the' occupants 
through the rapid spread of smoke, heat and fire. 

NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 

3-26 NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



• *****^**^**^**^*^**^***-A-****^***Tt************************** 



Life Risk Matrix 





Exit Classification 


Protection 


All exterior 
exits 


Interior exits 
access corridor 


Inadequate 
exits 


Fully 

sprinklered 
AND full 
detection 


VERY LOW 


VERY LOW 


LOW 


Fully 

sprinklered 
OR full 
detection 


VERY LOW 


LOW 


MEDIUM 


Sprinklered 
exit: corri- 
dors AND 
detectors in 
sleeping 
areas 


VERY LOW 


LOW 


MEDIUM 


Detectors 
in sleeping 
areas only 


LOW 


MEDIUM 


HIGH 


Manual fire 
alarm only 


MEDIUM 


HIGH 


VERY HIGH 


No early 
warning 


MEDIUM 


VERY HIGH 


VERY HIGH 



NOTE 

The survey team should consider the occupancy use and the 
number of people at risk in a particular building. An 
unusually high occupant load or other conditions could 
indicate a higher or lower life risk categorization. 

*********************************************************** 



STEP 5 RISK CALCULATION 

The following points must always be kept in mind. 

o The Life Risk Analysis Guide is simply that: a 
guide for use by knowledgeable people to esti- 
mate the potential life risk in occupied build- 

NATIONAL FIRE^CADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



3-27 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



o Unique situations will require special consid- 
erations . 

o The use by knowledgeable persons is essential. 

o The team approach is important, if not essen- 
tial. 

o The results of the survey can be used to pin- 
point risks and to make decisions relating to 
acceptable risk. 

o The level of risk will later be compared with 
the historical frequency of such instances so 
the likelihood of it occurring in the future 
can be predicted. 

Limits Finally, it must again be pointed out that this 
of the guide cannot be effectively used as an inspection 
Guide tool nor as a substitute for quality fire pro- 
tection engineering analysis. It is intended to 
be used only to estmate the relative degree of 
life risk in different buildings. 

IV. Community Consequences 

Community Community consequences take into consideration 
Conse- all of the tangible and intangible ways in which 
quences a fire may impact on the community as a whole. 

The community impact will vary depending on the 
size and the character of the community. The 
same fire in two locations will often receive 
different ratings. The impact on the community 
must be evaluated in relation to the potential 
impact of a particular fire on a particular com- 
munity. 

In addition to direct life loss and property 
damage, losses in terms of wages and tax revenues 
should be anticipated. 

The loss of pride and community spirit felt when 
a local landmark or a tourist attraction burns 
down, the feeling of loss sensed when the oldest 
building in town is no more or the tragedy of the 
loss of the town's original records affect us all 
yet we can place no value on them or even explain 
our loss to others. 

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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Very Low Risk 

The community would feel no loss. Damage would be 
insignificant and localized. 

Low Risk 

Other than the fire department and those directly 
involved with the fire, no community impact would 
be anticipated. 

Medium Risk 

The fire would receive public attention. Some of 
the people would be temporarily out of work and 
some tax revenue might be lost. 

High Risk 

The entire community would know of the fire. 
Jobs might be lost permanently and the loss of 
tax revenue could be significant. A general 
feeling of remorse would be expected. 

Very High Risk 

The community expresses shock or outrage. The 
loss of jobs and tax revenue would cause major 
problems. A major portion of any investigation 
would seek out "those who allowed this to happen." 
Indicators would be large numbers of deaths, 
jobs lost permanently, bankrupt businesses, etc. 

Rating By the time the pre-incident risk assessment has 
Form been carried out and the fire risk rating form 
Utility has been filled in, we should have a good under- 
standing of what it means to both the fire de- 
partment and the community as a whole. 

The water requirements section will be discussed 
in the next unit. The rest of the form must be 
subjected to another series of questions: 

o Why are the ratings so high? 

o What can be done to reduce the ratings? 

o What immediate and long-range actions should 
the fire department take to improve their 
efficiency and effectiveness? 

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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Are the owners and/or occupants aware of the 
danger? 

Is the community aware of the danger? 

Do the same problems show up in other build- 
ings and FMA's? 

How much loss is the community willing to 
withstand? 

How much of the risk is unprotected, i.e., 
beyond the capability of the fire depart- 
ment? 



Answers The most obvious answer to the first three ques- 
Are tions would seem to be fixed protection in the 
Available form of automatic sprinklers or at least detec- 
tion systems. However, this would require a 
retroactive code which would require a consider- 
able commitment of time and money. In many places 
retroactive codes are not considered as viable 
solutions. 

During the rest of the course, these and other 
issues will be studied. Problem solving strate- 
gies will be introduced which will lead to alter- 
native solutions to the problems of risk which 
have been identified. 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



3-30 NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



RISK WORKSHEET 
I. IJhat is risk? 




3. How is risk measured? 

A. 

B. 

C. 

D. 

E. 

F. 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



CONCORD COLLEGE 



Concord College sits on a beautiful campus, 2 miles from 
the center of town. Its 500-acre campus is considered a 
showplace of American college architecture today. The 
campus buildings range in age from 3 to 80 years and are 
kept in elegant condition by the college's high endowments, 
generous alumni and steep tuition rates. 

Almost 3,600 students live in the dormitories on campus. 
These dorms range from an 8-story fire-resistive building 
constructed in 1977 to a series of three-story edifices 
constructed in the 1920 's. 

The older dorms are ordinary construction (brick-wood 
joisted) and feature long corridors with rooms on both 
sides. Approximately 10 years ago, wired-glass partitions 
were installed on each floor to separate the stairs from 
the corridors, but many of the doors are habitually wedged 
open by the residents to provide better ventilation. 
Transoms over the room doors are also kept open for the 
same purpose. Manually activated fire alarm systems were 
installed at the same time as the stairway partitions. 

Classroom and administrative buildings on campus are of 
similar vintage and construction as the dorms. The fronts 
of the buildings are dominated by white columns, and the 
backs of most buildings feature traditional fire escapes. 
Automatic sprinklers have been installed in the basements 
of a few of the larger buildings. The buildings erected 
since 1968 have dry standpipes in the stairways. The 
only fire protection equipment in most areas is comprised 
of pressurized water extinguishers and 1-1/2-inch hose 
cabinets . 

The campus is served by an extension of the town's water 
system. An 8- inch line feeds a loop around the campus 
and hydrants are conveniently located. The water supply 
was recently tested at 2,375 gpm. 

The campus is patrolled at night by a security force of 
three roving personnel and one supervisor. 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



SITUATION 

Last Friday night your department responded to a fire on the 
fourth floor of the newest dorm building. The fire gutted 
one room and caused heavy smoke damage to the third-floor 
corridor and several other rooms. The fire was started by 
a candle that was left burning when the occupant went to 
watch television in a lounge. 

Six students and two security guards were treated for smoke 
inhalation and two of the students were admitted to a 
hospital for overnight observation. In addition, five 
firefighters were treated at the scene for exhaustion. The 
firefighters were relieved that the door between the room 
and the corridor remained shut until they were in position 
with a 1-1/2-inch attack line. Several speculated about 
what would have happened with the same fire in one of the 
older dorms, particularly the ones with glass transoms over 
the room doors. 

This was the first working fire on campus since 1962 when 
the groundskeeper ' s storage building burned down. The only 
major fire that anyone can remember was the one that de- 
stroyed the chapel on a cold winter night in 1951. 

You nave decided that it is time to have a better look at 
your ability to provide adequate protection for this campus. 



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3-34 NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Grace Hall 

CONCORD COLLEGE 

BUILT IN 1927 



• .t 

S Back Stairs Fir e Esc a P e 

* / is?' ni 




DORMITORY OCCUPANCY : 2 STUDENTS PER ROOM 
36 ROOMS PER FLOOR 

EACH ROOM IS 19'x12' (228 sq, fU-13034 sq, ft, PER FLOOR 
CEILINGS ARE 10' HIGH 
CORRIDORS ARE 10' WIDE 
3 STORIES 

ORDINARY CONSTRUCTION 
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3-35 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



INITIAL ATTACK FIRE FLOW FORM 



Occupancy : 



Dimensions of largest single open space: 
Length Width Height 



Cubic foot volume: cu. ft. 

Cubic feet divided by 100 = GPM 

Cubic feet divided by 200 = Total 

Gallons 
Needed 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



FIRE FLOW ESTIMATE FORM 



BLOCK A: BASIC INFORMATION 

Occupancy Name 

Address 



Classification 
F.M.A. 



Calculated by 



Est. F.F. 



GPM 



BLOCK B: DETERMINE TYPE OF CONSTRUCTION (Circle one) 
Fire Resistive Heavy Timber Ordinary Masonry or Concrete 
Non-Combus tible Wood Frame Mixed (Use predominant type) 



BLOCK C: DETERMINE EFFECTIVE AREA 



Add 



Largest floor area 

(sq. ft.) 

a) 50% of all other floor areas 
except for fire resistive 
construction; 

b) 25% of two largest successive 
floor areas for fire resistive 
construction with vertical 
separations ; 

c) 50% of eight largest successive 
floors for fire resistive 
construction with unprotected 
vertical openings. 



(sq. ft.) 



TOTALS 
COLUMN 



total 
sq.ft. (C) 



BLOCK D: DETERMINE BASE FIRE FLOW 

Select the correct GPM figure from Table 1 . 



GPM (D) 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



A M 



BLOCK E: DETERMINE OCCUPANCY 
FACTOR ADJUSTMENT 



Step 1 : Select a high or low fire 
load factor up to 25% 



Step 2: Multiply (D) by this 
factor. 



Step 3: If HIGH RISK, add the 
amount to (D) ; if LOW 
RISK subtract from (D) . 

NEW ADJUSTED TOTAL 



GPM (E) 



U M 

R E 

E N 

T 



BLOCK F: DETERMINE EXPOSURE 
ADJUSTMENT 

Using the tables 
below, enter the 
separation and the 
adjustment for each 
of the building's 
four "faces." 



Separation Adjustment 
in Feet Range 



0-10 
11 - 30 
31 - 60 
61 - 100 



15 - 25% 

10 - 20% 

7-15% 

5-10% 



Expo- 
sure 


Sep. 
Feet 


Adj. 


North 






East 






South 






West 







Total adjust- 
ment (not more 
than 75%) 



Multiply (E) by this percentage. 



NEW ADJUSTED TOTAL = 



GPM (F) 



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3-38 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



BLOCK G: TOTAL REQUIRED FIRE FLOW 

II If less than 500 GPM, enter II 
II 500 GPM. H 

11 If greater than 12,000 GPM, 11 
K enter 12,000 GPM. 11 

1 If less than 2,500 GPM, K 

1[ round off (H) to the nearest 11 
1f 250 GPM. 11 

K If greater than 2,500 GPM, II 
1f round off (H) to the nearest K 
1f 500 GPM. 11 

TOTAL REQUIRED FIRE FLOW ROUNDED OFF 



GPM (G) 



(ENTER TOTAL ON LINE 
THREE, BLOCK A) 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



************************************************************ 

Life Risk Matrix 





Exit Classification 


Protection 


All exterior 
exits 


Interior exits 
access corridor 


Inadequate 
exits 


Fully 

sprinklered 
AND full 
detection 


VERY LOW 


VERY LOW 


LOW 


Fully 

sprinklered 
OR full 
detection 


VERY LOW 


LOW 


MEDIUM 


Sprinklered 
exit corri- 
dors AND 
detectors in 
sleeping 
areas 


VERY LOW 


LOW 


MEDIUM 


Detectors 
in sleeping 
areas only 


LOW 


MEDIUM 


HIGH 


Manual fire 
alarm only 


MEDIUM 


HIGH 


VERY HIGH 


No early 
warning 


MEDIUM 


VERY HIGH 


VERY HIGH 



NOTE 

The survey team should consider the occupancy use and the 
number of people at risk in a particular building. An 
unusually high occupant load or other conditions could 
indicate a higher or lower life risk categorization. 

*********************************************************** 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



3-40 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



FIRE RISK RATING FORM 



SUMMARY 



Occupancy 
Name 

Address 



Classification 

F.M.A. 



Calculated by 



TYPE OF CONSTRUCTION (Circle one) 

Fire Resistive Heavy Timber Ordinary 
Non-combustible Wood Frame Mixed 





Property 

Risk 
(gpm's) 


Life Risk 


Community 
Consequence 


Initial Attack 








Sustained Attack 





Special Risk Factors: 



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3-41 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Stemple Towers 

CONCORD COLLEGE 



Stairs 




Stairs 



240' 



STEMPLE TOWERS 

8 STORIES 19,000 sq, ft, PER FLOOR 

FIRE RESISTIVE CONSTRUCTION BUILT IN 1977 

DORMITORY OCCUPANCY 2 STUDENTS PER ROOM 

48 ROOMS PER FLOOR 

ROOMS ARE 20'x15' (300 sq. ft.) 

ALL CEILINGS 10' HIGH 

CORRIDORS ARE 10' WIDE 

LOUNGE ON EACH FLOOR 20'x40' (800 sq, ft,) 

(NOTE: LOUNGE IS NOT SEPARATED FROM CORRIDOR) 
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3-43 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



INITIAL ATTACK FIRE FLOW FORM 



Occupancy 



Dimensions of largest single open space: 
Length Uidth Height 



Cubic foot volume: cu. ft 



Cubic feet divided by 100 = GPM 



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3-44 NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



FIRE FLOW ESTIMATE FORM 



BLOCK A: BASIC INFORMATION 

Occupancy Name 

Address 



Classification 
F.M.A. 



Calculated by 



Est. F.F. 



GPM 



BLOCK B: DETERMINE TYPE OF CONSTRUCTION (Circle one) 
Fire Resistive Heavy Timber Ordinary Masonry or Concrete 
Non- Combustible Wood Frame Mixed (Use predominant type) 



BLOCK C: DETERMINE EFFECTIVE AREA 

Largest floor area 

(sq. ft.) 
Add: a) 50% of all other floor areas 

except for fire resistive 

construction; 

b) 25% of two largest successive 
floor areas for fire resistive 
construction with vertical 
separations ; 

c) 50% of eight largest successive 
floors for fire resistive 
construction with unprotected 
vertical openings. 

(sq. ft.) 



TOTALS 
COLUMN 



total 
sq.ft. (C) 



BLOCK D: DETERMINE BASE FIRE FLOW 

Select the correct GPM figure from Table 1 . 



GPM (D) 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



3-45 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



BLOCK E: DETERMINE OCCUPANCY 
FACTOR ADJUSTMENT 

Step 1 : Select a high or low fire 
load factor up to 25% 



Step 2: Multiply (D) by this 
factor. 



Step 3: If HIGH RISK, add the 
amount to (D) ; if LOW 
RISK subtract from (D) . 

NEW ADJUSTED TOTAL 



GPM (E) 



U M 

R E 

E N 

T 



BLOCK F: DETERMINE EXPOSURE 
ADJUSTMENT 

Using the tables 
below, enter the 
separation and the 
adjustment for each 
of the building's 
four "faces." 



Separation 
in Feet 


Adjustment 
Range 


Expo- 
sure 


Sep. 
Feet 


Adj. 


0-10 
11 - 30 
31 - 60 
61 - 100 


15 - 25% 

10 - 20% 

7-15% 

5-10% 


North 






East 






South 






West 













Total adjust- 
ment (not more 
than 75%) 



Multiply (E) by this percentage. 



NEW ADJUSTED TOTAL - 



GPM (F) 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



3-46 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



BLOCK G: TOTAL REQUIRED FIRE FLOW 

11 If less than 500 GPM, enter II 

K 500 GPM. 11 

11 If greater than 12,000 GPM, 11 

11 enter 12,000 GPM. 11 

11 If less than 2,500 GPM, 11 

11 round off (H) to the nearest 1f 

11 250 GPM. 1f 

11 If greater than 2,500 GPM, II 

11 round off (H) to the nearest 11 

11 500 GPM. 11 

TOTAL REQUIRED FIRE FLOW ROUNDED OFF 



GPM (G) 



(ENTER TOTAL ON LINE 
THREE, BLOCK A) 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



3-47 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



******** *********** ********* *************** ***************** 

Life Risk Matrix 





Exit Classification 


Protection 


All exterior 
exits 


Interior exits 
access corridor 


Inadequate 
exits 


Fully 

sprinklered 
AND full 
detection 


VERY LOW 


VERY LOW 


LOW 


Fully 

sprinklered 
OR full 
detection 


VERY LOW 


LOW 


MEDIUM 


Sprinklered 
exit corri- 
dors AND 
detectors in 
sleeping 
areas 


VERY LOW 


LOW 


MEDIUM 


Detectors 
in sleeping 
areas only 


LOW 


MEDIUM 


HIGH 


Manual fire 
alarm only 


MEDIUM 


HIGH 


VERY HIGH 


No early 
warning 


MEDIUM 


VERY HIGH 


VERY HIGH 



NOTE 

The survey team should consider the occupancy use and the 
number of people at risk in a particular building. An 
unusually high occupant load or other conditions could 
indicate a higher or lower life risk categorization. 

*********************************************************** 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



3-48 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



FIRE RISK RATING FORM 



SUMMARY 



Occupancy 
Name 

Address 



Calculated by 



Classification 
F.M.A. 



TYPE OF CONSTRUCTION (Circle one) 
Fire Resistive Heavy Timber 
Non-combustible Wood Frame 



Ordinary 
Mixed 





Property 

Risk 
(gpm's) 


Life Risk 


Community 
Consequence 


Initial Attack 








Sustained Attack 





Special Risk Factors 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



3-49 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



SHALL GROUP ACTIVITY 

For the next 45 minutes, you will be involved in a group 
activity applying the information and tools you have just 
learned . 

This manual contains a set of three scenarios. Your 
instructor will assign one to your group. 

Following each scenario is a set of worksheets needed for 
the activity. 

You and your group will do four things. 

1. Calculate the needed fire flow for the initial attack. 

2. Calculate the needed fire flow for the sustained attack. 

3. Estimate life risk. 

4. Estimate community consequences. 

When you have reached some consensus, place the information 
on the Fire Risk Summary Form and select one spokesperson 
to give a report to the class when called on by the 
instructor. 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 3. 51 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



BEARPAU SHOE COMPANY 



The Bearpaw Shoe Company has been one of the largest indus- 
tries in your area for over 75 years. Its complex of two- 
and three-story buildings is crowded into the heart of the 
industrial area, bordering on the central business district. 
Within the last 10 years, shoe production has declined sig- 
nificantly and parts of the complex have been sold and 
rented to a variety of other companies. The number of 
employees has remained about the same, however. 

In addition to the shoe company, parts of the complex are 
now occupied by a manufacturer of styrofoam cups, a tire 
distributor, a swimming pool supply company, a cabinet 
shop, a furniture wholesaler, and a truck body manufacturer. 
Each of these occupants has a portion of the complex ranging 
from a whole wing to part of a floor. 

The buildings were constructed in the early 1900 ' s , some of 
heavy timber and some of fire-resistive construction. All 
of the buildings have automatic sprinklers, supplied by an 
elevated water tank and a steam-driven, 1,500-gpm fire pump. 
The steam for the fire pump comes from the shoe factory's 
main boilers that used to run continuously. Now they are 
shut down at night and on weekends and it takes the plant 
engineer 15 minutes to get them fired up again. 

There is a system of yard hydrants with a good water sup- 
ply, connected to the private supply and a connection to 
the public water system. The public water system can 
deliver 1,250 gpm in this area of the city at 20 psi 
residual pressure. Static pressure is 50 psi. 

The complex is separated from the buildings on Commercial 
Street by a 20-foot wide alley. The three-and four-story 
buildings on Commercial street contain a variety of stores 
and businesses, many with apartments on the upper floors. 

Over the years, the plant's sprinkler system and fire bri- 
gade have controlled numerous fires without serious damage. 
The fire brigade was disbanded 5 years ago and since that 
time the public fire department has responded to a few 
small fires, each controlled by one sprinkler head. 

Your fire inspector has just returned from making an inspec- 
tion of the property and informed you about the lack of 
steam for the boiler at night and on weekends. He is also 
concerned about the adequacy of the fixed fire protection 
in view of the changing occupancy. 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 
3-52 NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Bearpaw Shoe Co. 




Shopping 
Center 



Commercial St. 

(NUMBERS IN CORNERS REPRESENT NUMBER OF FLOORS.) 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



3-53 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



BEARPAW SHOE CO. 



ENCLOSED BRIDGE 
AT 2ND FLOOR 



120' 




50' 



METAL SHED 
20' HIGH 
USED FOR 
TIRE STORAGE 



3 STORIES 9600 sq, ft, PER FLOOR 

HEAVY TIMBER CONSTRUCTION 

INCLUDES ONE OPEN STAIRWAY, 

ONE ENCLOSED STAIRWAY 

AND AN OPEN FREIGHT ELEVATOR 

CEILINGS ARE 14' HIGH 

GROUND FLOOR - TIRES 

SECOND FLOOR - STYROFOAM CUPS 

THIRD FLOOR - FURNITURE 

NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



OCCUPANCY 
STORAGE 



3-54 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



INITIAL ATTACK FIRE FLOW FORM 



Occupancy 



Dimensions of largest single open space: 

Length Width Height 

Cubic foot volume: cu. ft. 

Cubic feet divided by 100 = GPM 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 3-55 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



FIRE FLOW ESTIMATE FORM 



BLOCK A: BASIC INFORMATION 

Occupancy Name 

Address 



Classification 
F.M.A. 



Calculated by 



Est. F.F. 



GPM 



BLOCK B: DETERMINE TYPE OF CONSTRUCTION (Circle one) 
Fire Resistive Heavy Timber Ordinary Masonry or Concrete 
Non- Combustible Wood Frame Mixed (Use predominant type) 



BLOCK C: DETERMINE EFFECTIVE AREA 

Largest floor area 

(sq.. ft.) 
Add: a) 50% of all other floor areas 

except for fire resistive 

construction; 

b) 25% of two largest successive 
floor areas for fire resistive 
construction with vertical 
separations ; 

c) 50% of eight largest successive 
floors for fire resistive 
construction with unprotected 
vertical openings. 



(sq. ft.) 



TOTALS 
COLUMN 



total 
.sq.ft. (C) 



BLOCK D: DETERMINE BASE FIRE FLOW 

Select the correct GPM figure from Table 1 . GPM (D) 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



3-56 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



A 
D 
C J 



P T 

A M 

N E 

C N 

Y T 



BLOCK E: DETERMINE OCCUPANCY 
FACTOR ADJUSTMENT 

Step 1 : Select a high or low fire 
load factor up to 25% 



Step 2: Multiply (D) by this 
factor. 



Step 3: If HIGH RISK, add the 
amount to (D) ; if LOW 
RISK subtract from (D) . 

NEW ADJUSTED TOTAL = 



GPM (E) 



A 
E D 
X J 
P U 
s 
S T 
U M 
R E 
E N 

T 



BLOCK F: DETERMINE EXPOSURE 
ADJUSTMENT 

Using the tables 
below, enter the 
separation and the 
adjustment for each 
of the building's 
four "faces." 



Separation 
in Feet 


Adjustment 
Range 


Expo- 
sure 


Sep. 
Feet 


Adj . 


0-10 
11 - 30 
31 - 60 
61 - 100 


15 - 25% 

10 - 20% 

7 - 15% 

5-10% 


North 






East 






South 






West 













Total adjust- 
ment (not more 
than 75%) 



Multiply (E) by this percentage 



NEW ADJUSTED TOTAL 



_GPM (F) 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



3-57 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



BLOCK G: TOTAL REQUIRED FIRE FLOW 

11 If less than 500 GPM, enter 

11 500 GPM. 

II If greater than 12,000 GPM, 

1f enter 12,000 GPM. 

I If less than 2,500 GPM, 

II round off (H) to the nearest 
11 250 GPM. 1f 

11 If greater than 2,500 GPM, 11 

11 round off (H) to the nearest If 

11 500 GPM. If 



TOTAL REQUIRED FIRE FLOW ROUNDED OFF 



GPM (G) 



(ENTER TOTAL ON LINE 
THREE, BLOCK A) 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



3-58 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



************************************************************ 

Life Risk Matrix 





Exit Classification 


Protection 


All exterior 
exits 


Interior exits 
access corridor 


Inadequate 
exits 


Fully 

sprinkiered 
AND full 
detection 


VERY LOW 


VERY LOW 


LOW 


Fully 

sprinkiered 
OR full 
detection 


VERY LOW 


LOW 


MEDIUM 


Sprinkiered 
exit corri- 
dors AND 
detectors in 
sleeping 
areas 


VERY LOW 


LOW 


MEDIUM 


Detectors 
in sleeping 
areas only 


LOW 


MEDIUM 


HIGH 


Manual fire 
alarm only 


MEDIUM 


HIGH 


VERY HIGH 


No early 
warning 


MEDIUM 


VERY HIGH 


VERY HIGH 



NOTE 

The survey team should consider the occupancy use and the 
number of people at risk in a particular building. An 
unusually high occupant load or other conditions could 
indicate a higher or lower life risk categorization. 

************************************************* 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



3-59 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



FIRE RISK RATING FORM 



SUMMARY 



Occupancy 
Name 

Address 



Calculated by 



Classification 
F.M.A. 



TYPE OF CONSTRUCTION (Circle one) 

Fire Resistive Heavy Timber Ordinary 
Non-combustible Wood Frame Mixed 





Property 

Risk 
(gptn's) 


Life Risk 


Community 
Consequence 


Initial Attack 








Sustained Attack 





Special Risk Factors: 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



3-60 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



ACADEMY MOTEL and FORT HILLIS HOTEL 



Several major loss-of- life fires in hotels and motels have 
received heavy exposure in the news media over the last 5 
years. A five-death fire in a city 200 miles away has 
finally caught the attention of your Mayor, who calls to 
ask about the vulnerability of your community to this type 
of disaster. You have been waiting for this opportunity to 
get your foot' in the door for over 6 months--when you 
returned from a National Fire Academy course, " Fire Risk 
Analysis: A Systems Approach ." 

At your first meeting with the Mayor, you get to show her 
the risk analysis you have done on the hotels and motels 
in your community and the assessment of your current sup- 
pression capability. The Mayor gives you the green light 
to make proposals for changes to the entire council at a 
public meeting. You have 30 days to prepare. 

The hotels and motels in your community fall into several 
categories, but you have identified two groups that present 
an exceptional risk. Your assessment is reinforced by 
nationally reported experience with these types of buildings 
and a few "close calls" locally. While you have not had 
any hotel or motel deaths in your community lately, you 
have had one or two fires each year that could have been 
much worse with just slightly different circumstances. 

The first of two types of high risk occupancies that you 
have identified is the two-story enclosed corridor motel. 

You have such a motel, belonging to a major chain. This 
one has eight sections, linked together around a central 
courtyard having a swimming pool and recreation area. 

The construction is brick outer walls with wood partitions 
and floor/roof assemblies. The sections are divided by 
firewalls, with fire doors dividing the interior corridors 
at the firewalls. The fire doors are held open with 180°F 
fusible links. Each wing has at least one stairway join- 
ing the first and second floors. You are aware of several 
cases where the fire walls have been penetrated in the 
attic spaces to run air ducts or electrical lines between 
sections . 

The rooms open onto the central corridors from both sides, 
with an average of 60 rooms between firewalls (30 on each 
floor) . The room doors are solid core wood and many of 
them have spring- loaded hinges that make them self-closing. 
This chain has installed battery-operated smoke detectors 

NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 

NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 3-61 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



in all their rooms, but this is not required by any code. 
Manually activated local fire alarm systems are required. 
The only fire fighting equipment required by code is extin- 
guishers mounted every 150 feet in the corridors. Some of 
the hotels have pressurized water units and some have 2A 
10BC dry chemical units. 

Soft-drink machines and ice machines are installed under 
the stairs on the ground floor. Roll-away beds and maids 1 
carts are often found in the corridors, although a small 
storage room is provided for them on each floor in each 
section. 

These buildings were in compliance with the building code 
at the time of their construction. Changes in the code 
since that time required that corridor separation doors and 
room doors be self-closing and be kept closed at all times. 
Emergency lighting is now required in all exit corridors, 
and each room must have a smoke detector. These require- 
ments are not retroactive. 

The second type of high rise structure that creates some 
potential problems for you is the old Fort Hillis Hotel. 
It is typical in most respects. Built in 1911, it is ten 
stories tall, constructed with a concrete frame, and 
granite outer walls. It is considered a landmark and is 
on the National Registry of Historic Sites. 

There are 30 guest rooms per floor on the second through 
eighth floors. The ground floor and mezzanine include 
several meeting rooms, a ballroom, and two restaurants, 
all of which open onto the main lobby. The west end of the 
ninth floor contains a large ballroom that extends through 
the tenth floor. The remainder of the ninth floor contains 
the hotel offices and service areas, while four luxury 
suites occupy the remainder of the tenth floor. 

The corridors on each floor form a W- shaped pattern with a 
stairway on the end of each of three wings. These stairways 
were added in the early 1960's and replaced old fire escapes. 
The stairs are enclosed by concrete on the outside walls 
and separated by wired-glass partition and door assemblies 
from the corridors. The doors are held open with fusible 
links . 

There are three elevators at the center of the building, and 
facing the elevator bank is a grand stairway extending from 
the lobby to. the tenth floor. This stairway has marble 
steps, polished brass handrails, and polished oak paneling 
all the way up. This stairway is not separated from the 
corridors . 

NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 

3-62 NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



The doors to the rooms are carved wood, without closers. 
When new locks were installed recently, the hotel paid 
over $75 per door to natch the antique faceplates around 
the locks. Each room has a transom to obtain air from 
the corridor. 

The basement, which is not sprinklered , contains a disco 
with an occupant capacity of 650. This is reached through 
an open stairway from the hotel lobby, although one exit 
door leads directly to a narrow outside stairway to the 
rear alley. 

In 1968, three hotel guests died in a fire on the fifth 
floor of this particular hotel. The fire started in a 
guest room and extended to the corridor. Twenty additional 
guests, four hotel employees, and eleven firefighters were 
overcome by smoke. Numerous rescues were made with ladders 
as smoke filled most of the building, but firefighters 
were successful in holding the fire to the room and a 
section of the corridor. At that time, officials praised 
the newly installed manual fire alarm system for alerting 
guests to the danger and promptly summoning firefighters 
through its direct connection to the fire department. 

The fire was extinguished by one 1-1/2-inch line from a 
hose cabinet and a 2-1/2-inch line from the dry standpipe 
in one of the exit stairway towers. The standpipes had 
been installed, along with the stairways and alarm system, 
during a major renovation project during 1960-1962. 

There was no building code at the time of the original 
construction. The renovation of 1962 brought it into 
compliance with the code in effect at that time, with 
several variances allowed to preserve the historic 
character of the building. 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 3-63 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS! A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



ACADEMY MOTEL 



335' 



c 

6 



A-Wing 



c 

s 

6 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



3-64 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS. A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Motel 
D-Wing 























1 








IE 1 


^ 






0202 | 


D201 






D204 


0203 






D206 


D205 






D208| | D207 






D210 | | D209 






D212 | | D211 






D214 


|D213 


m 

CO 




D216 | | D215 


CM 




D218 1 D217 






D220 


|D219 






D222 


| D221 






D224 


D223 






D226 | ] D225 






D228| |D227 






D23o| | D229 






/ 
( 






•> 




1 1 111 






\ 


x 




N 













Fire wall 



11,750 sq. ft./floor 
Room : 330 sq. ft. 
(22 ft. x 15 ft.) 

Corridor : 6 ft. wide 

Ceilings : 8 ft. 



Fire wall 



50' 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



3-65 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



FORT HILLIS HOTEL 

(BLOCK PLAN) 

THREE-LEVEL PARKING GARAGE 



m 



STANDPIPES 



& 



A 



HOTEL 



MAIN 
ENTRANCE 



1 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



3-66 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Fort Hillis Hotel 

Typical Floor 



pita 



—12^* Service 



□So 



\ / 



x 32' *> 



DIE 



12' Wide Corridors 

25,680 Sq. Ft. Per Floor 

12' Ceilings 

Avg. Room = 480 Sq. Ft. (20' x 24') 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



3-67 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



INITIAL ATTACK FIRE FLOW FORM 



Occupancy : 



Dimensions of largest single open space: 
Length Width Height 



Cubic foot volume: cu. ft. 

Cubic feet divided by 100 = GPM 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



3-68 NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



FIRE FLOW ESTIMATE FORM 



BLOCK A: BASIC INFORMATION 

Occupancy Name 

Address 



Classification 
F.M.A. 



Calculated by 



Est. F.F. 



GPM 



BLOCK B: DETERMINE TYPE OF CONSTRUCTION (Circle one) 
Fire Resistive Heavy Timber Ordinary Masonry or Concrete 
Non-Combus tible Wood Frame Mixed (Use predominant type) 



BLOCK C: DETERMINE EFFECTIVE AREA 

Largest floor area 

(sq. ft.) 
Add: a) 50% of all other floor areas 

except for fire resistive 

construction; 

b) 25% of two largest successive 
floor areas for fire resistive 
construction with vertical 
separations ; 

c) 50% of eight largest successive 
floors for fire resistive 
construction with unprotected 
vertical openings. 

(sq. ft.) 



TOTALS 
COLUMN 



total 
sq.ft. (C) 



BLOCK D: DETERMINE BASE FIRE FLOW 

Select the correct GPM figure from Table 1 



GPM (D) 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



3-69 



FIRE. RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



C N 
Y T 



BLOCK E: DETERMINE OCCUPANCY 
FACTOR ADJUSTMENT 

Step 1 : Select a high or low fire 
load factor up to 25% 



Step 2: Multiply (D) by this 
factor. 



Step 3: If HIGH RISK, add the 
amount to (D) ; if LOW 
RISK subtract from (D) . 

NEW ADJUSTED TOTAL = 



GPM (E) 



U M 
R E 

E N 
T 



BLOCK F: DETERMINE EXPOSURE 
ADJUSTMENT 

Using the tables 
below, enter the 
separation and the 
adjustment for each 
of the building's 
four "faces." 



Separation 
in Feet 


Adjustment 
Range 


Expo- 
sure 


Sep. 
Feet 


Ad]. 


0-10 
11 - 30 
31 - 60 
61 - 100 


15 - 25% 

10 - 20% 

7-15% 

5-10% 


North 






East 






South 






West 













Total adjust- 
ment (not more 
than 75%) 



Multiply (E) by this percentage. 



NEW ADJUSTED TOTAL = 



GPM (F) 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



3-70 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



LOCK G: TOTAL REQUIRED FIRE FLOW 

11 If less than 500 GPM, enter 11 

11 500 GPM. 11 

If If greater than 12,000 GPM, 11 

1 enter 12,000 GPM. 11 

I If less than 2,500 GPM, If 
K round off (H) to the nearest 1f 

II 250 GPM. 11 

11 If greater than 2,500 GPM, If 

1f round off (H) to the nearest If 

11 500 GPM. 1f 

TOTAL REQUIRED FIRE FLOW ROUNDED OFF = 



GPM (G) 



(ENTER TOTAL ON LINE 
THREE, BLOCK A) 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



3-71 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



******************************************************* 

Life Risk Matrix 





Exit Classification 


Protection 


All exterior 
exits 


Interior exits 
access corridor 


Inadequate 
exits 


Fully 

sprinklered 
AND full 
detection 


VERY LOW 


VERY LOW 


LOW 


Fully 

sprinklered 
OR full 
detection 


VERY LOW 


LOW 


MEDIUM 


Sprinklered 
exit corri- 
dors AND 
detectors in 
sleeping 
areas 


VERY LOW 


LOW 


MEDIUM 


Detectors 
in sleeping 
areas only 


LOW 


MEDIUM 


HIGH 


Manual fire 
alarm only 


MEDIUM 


HIGH 


VERY HIGH 


No early 
warning 


MEDIUM 


VERY HIGH 


VERY HIGH 



NOTE 

The survey team should consider the occupancy use and the 
number of people at risk in a particular building. An 
unusually high occupant load or other conditions could 
indicate a higher or lower life risk categorization. 

*********************************************************** 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



3-72 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



FIRE RISK RATING FORM 



SUMMARY 



Occupancy 
Name 

Address 



Classification 
F.M.A. 



Calculated by 



TYPE OF CONSTRUCTION (Circle one) 
Fire Resistive Heavy Timber 

Non-combustible Wood Frame 



Ordinary 
Mixed 





Property 

Risk 
(gpm's) 


Life Risk 


Community 
Consequence 


Initial Attack 








Sustained Attack 





Special Risk Factors 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



3-73 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



BOARDING HOUSE 

Along Che river bank in your community are stately old 
homes, built 60 to 70 years ago by the wealthy. These 
two-and three-story homes are a variety of wood and brick 
construction and average about 2,500 square feet in floor 
area on each level. They line both sides of a tree-shaded 
street, some facing the river and others backing it. 

In the last 20 or 30 years, the original families moved 
away, selling out to people who made them into apartments 
and rooming houses. Gradually, this changed the complexion 
of the neighborhood. 

Within the last few years, many owners began to contract 
with the State Department of Social Welfare to take in the 
former residents of some institutions for the handicapped 
on a residential custodial care basis. These homes must be 
inspected and certified by the state, which has preempted 
local jurisdiction over these state-contracted boarding 
homes. Local officials are not even informed when these 
facilities are licensed, and generally find out about them 
when they respond to emergency medical service calls. 

The state requirements call for at least one single-station 
smoke alarm in the hall on each floor plus a manual pull 
station that is part of the local alarm. Heat detectors 
must be in each room. A solid-core wood door must be 
installed in each stairway at each floor level, and there 
must be at least two stairways. 

There may be up to four occupants in each room. Host of 
them have obvious physical or mental handicaps. A single 
home may contain 30 to 50 occupants. The home is required 
to have at least one responsible person on duty at all 
times and fire drills must be held at least every 90 days. 
State inspectors check the homes annually to renew their 
permits and require the fire alarm system and extinguishers 
to be serviced each year. The telephone number of the 
local fire department must be posted adjacent to each 
telephone. 

SITUATION 

The Captain from Engine 3 returned from an EMS call at one 
of the homes and wrote a letter to the editor of the local 
newspaper proclaiming that "a grave hazard exists and nobody 
seems to care." Since the morning edition was delivered, 
you have been deluged with telephone calls asking if the 
allegations are true and what you propose to do about them. 

NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 

NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 3-75 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



RIVERSIDE BOARDING HOME 



BLOCK PLAN 








3-76 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



MVERSIDE BOARDING HOME 

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ORDINARY CONSTRUCTION ATTIC - 28500 cu, ft, 
2 STORIES WITH ATTIC CORRIDORS ARE 5' WIDE 

USED FOR STORAGE ..,>„ r»^ne adc i k« y ir' 

MOST ROOMS ARE 15 X 15 

NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



3-77 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



INITIAL ATTACK FIRE FLOW FORM 



Occupancy 



Dimensions of largest single open space: 
Length Width Height 



Cubic foot volume: cu. ft 



Cubic feet divided by 100 = CPU 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



3-78 NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



FIRE FLOW ESTIMATE FORM 



BLOCK A: BASIC INFORMATION 

Occupancy Name 

Address 



Classification 
F.M.A. 



Calculated by 



Est. F.F. 



GPM 



BLOCK B: DETERMINE TYPE OF CONSTRUCTION (Circle one) 
Fire Resistive Heavy Timber Ordinary Masonry or Concrete 
Non-Combus tible Wood Frame Mixed (Use predominant type) 



BLOCK C: DETERMINE EFFECTIVE AREA 

Largest floor area 

(sq. ft.) 
a) 50% of all other floor areas 



Add 



except for fire resistive 
construction; 

b) 25% of two largest successive 
floor areas for fire resistive 
construction with vertical 
separations ; 

c) 50% of eight largest successive 
floors for fire resistive 
construction with unprotected 
vertical openings. 



(sq. ft.) 



TOTALS 
COLUMN 



total 
sq.ft. (C) 



BLOCK D: DETERMINE BASE FIRE FLOW 

Select the correct GPM figure from Table 1 . 



GPM (D) 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



3-79 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



A 
D 
C J 



BLOCK E: DETERMINE OCCUPANCY 
FACTOR ADJUSTMENT 

Step 1 : Select a high or low fire 
load factor up to 25% 



Step 2: Multiply (D) by this 
factor. 



Step 3: If HIGH RISK, add the 
amount to (D) ; if LOW 
RISK subtract from (D) . 

NEW ADJUSTED TOTAL = 



GPM (E) 



A 
E D 
X J 



U M 

R E 

E N 

T 



BLOCK F: DETERMINE EXPOSURE 
ADJUSTMENT 

Using the tables 
below, enter the 
separation and the 
adjustment for each 
of the building's 
four "faces." 



Separation 
in Feet 


Adjustment 
Range 


Expo- 
sure 


Sep. 
Feet 


Adj . 


0-10 
11 - 30 
31 - 60 
61 - 100 


15 - 25% 

10 - 20% 

7-15% 

5-10% 


North 






East 






South 






West 















Total adjust- 
ment (not more 
than 75%) 



Multiply (E) by this percentage, 



NEW ADJUSTED TOTAL 



GPM (F) 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



3-80 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



BLOCK G: TOTAL REQUIRED FIRE FLOW 

II If less than 500 GPM, enter 
11 500 GPM. 

11 If greater than 12,000 GPM, 
K enter 12,000 GPM. 

K If less than 2,500 GPM, 

1f round off (H) to the nearest 

11 250 GPM. 

K If greater than 2,500 GPM, 
1f round off (H) to the nearest 
11 500 GPM. K 

TOTAL REQUIRED FIRE FLOW ROUNDED OFF 



GPM (G) 



(ENTER TOTAL ON LINE 
THREE, BLOCK A) 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



3-81 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



****** ********************** *********** ********************* 

Life Risk Matrix 





Exit Classification 


Protection 


All exterior 
exits 


Interior exits 
access corridor 


Inadequate 
exits 


Fully 

sprinklered 
AND full 
detection 


VERY LOW 


VERY LOW 


LOW 


Fully 

sprinklered 
OR full 
detection 


VERY LOW 


LOW 


MEDIUM 


Sprinklered 
exit corri- 
dors AND 
detectors in 
sleeping 
areas 


VERY LOW 


LOW 


MEDIUM 


Detectors 
in sleeping 
areas only 


LOW 


MEDIUM 


HIGH 


Manual fire 
alarm only 


MEDIUM 


HIGH 


VERY HIGH 


No early 
warning 


MEDIUM 


VERY HIGH 


VERY HIGH 



NOTE 

The survey team should consider the occupancy use and the 
number of people at risk in a particular building. An 
unusually high occupant load or other conditions could 
indicate a higher or lower life risk categorization. 

*********************************************************** 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



3-82 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



FIRE RISK RATING FORM 



SUMMARY 



Occupancy 
Name 

Address 



Calculated by 



Classification 
F.M.A. 



TYPE OF CONSTRUCTION (Circle one) 
Fire Resistive Heavy Timber 

Non-combustible Wood Frame 



Ordinary 
Mixed 





Property 

Risk 
(gpm's) 


Life Risk 


Community 
Consequence 


Initial Attack 








Sustained Attack 





Special Risk Factors: 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



3-83 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Unit III: The Community at Risk 

I. Risk 

A. Definition 



B. Categories 



C. Determining Risk 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 3-85 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



D. Sources of risk 



II. Target Hazard 



III. Risk Modifiers 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



3-86 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



IV. Fixed Fire Protection Systems 
A. Active Systems 



Passive Systems 



C. Building Construction 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 3-87 



FTRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



V. Fire Ilanagement Areas 
A. Definition 



. Criteria for creating FIlA's 



C. Benefits 



D. Selection of target hazards 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



3-88 NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



VI. Determining Needed Fire Flow 
A. Value 



B. Initial Attack Calculation 



VII. Determining Needed Fire Flow (Sustained Attack) 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 3. 89 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



VII. Estimating Life Risk 
A. Complex issue 



B. Other considerations 



C. Management tool 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



3_ 90 NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



VIII. Evaluating Community Consequences 



IX. Value of Rating Form 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 3 _ 91 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



UNIT IV 

FIRE SUPPRESSION 

IN THE COMMUNITY 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Unit IV: Fire Suppression in the Community 



Obj ective 

The participants will be able to identify fire suppression 
capability using specific measurement tools. 



Fire In this unit, we will focus on the fire fighting 
Protection aspect of fire protection. We will examine the 
fire suppression capability of the public fire 
protection forces serving the community. For the 
purposes of this discussion, we will consider 
fixed protection systems as efforts to lower the 
risk at a particular location, hopefully reducing 
the demand for public fire suppression capability. 
We will consider fire suppression capability to 
include all of the resources at the disposal of 
the public fire department to deal with an actual 
fire situation. 



Fire Fire suppression is one element of fire pro- 
Suppression tection. Suppression includes all actions and 
activities that are designed to control or extin- 
guish fires once they have been ignited. Fixed 
protection systems (i.e., automatic sprinklers, 
dry chemical systems) are designed to react to 
fires that break out at a specific location. The 
fire suppression role of the public fire depart- 
ment is to deliver mobile fire fighting capability 
to any location where a fire breaks out. 

Suppression capability is an expression of how 
much fire fighting power can be put into action 
when there is a fire. It includes the amount of 
apparatus, equipment, and personnel available; 
the time needed to respond and place equipment 
in action; the water supply; the application of 
tactics and strategy; the level of training; and 
all of the components that add up to effective 
fireground operations. 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 

NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER , , 

4-1 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Our process of estimating fire suppression capa- 
bility will provide us with a system to judge the 
level of resources available to the fire depart- 
ment and how well the fire department makes use 
of those resources. We are interested in how much 
actual fire fighting capability the- fire depart- 
ment can deliver and put into action when there 
is a fire to combat. This may include a wide 
variety of systems and methods, depending on 
local circumstances, organizations, and resource- 
fulness. 

This fire suppression capability should reflect 
the identified l'evel of risk in the community. A 
community that has a low-risk profile probably 
needs less suppression capability than a community 
with high risk. The comparison should be made on 
a case-by-case basis, looking at the risk and the 
suppression capability available to respond to 
that risk. The role of the fire department may 
be interpreted as filling the gap between the 
total risk and whatever protection has been pro- 
vided by other means to deal with that risk. The 
fire department is often the last line of defense 
between what is expected and what actually happens. 



Variety Different circumstances and operating methods 
of lead to a variety of different approaches to fire 
Approaches suppression. Fire departments range in size from 
large organizations with thousands of full-time 
career firefighters to small volunteer depart- 
ments with as few as a dozen members. The exami- 
nation of fire suppression capability should not 
be a comparison of these different approaches to 
each other (this is simply not realistic and a 
waste of time) , but should concentrate on deter- 
mining whether or not the suppression capability 
is adequate or appropriate to deal with the risk. 

Because of the variety of risks that muse be 
addressed by firefighters in different jurisdic- 
tions or in different locations within the same 
jurisdiction, suppression capability should be 
measured with respect to the identified hazards 
under consideration. This requires an assessment 
of the suppression capability needed to deal with 
a potential fire situation in a particular loca- 
tion and a comparison of the available suppression 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 
4-2 NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS. A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



capability with respect to that demand. The de- 
mand level comes from the assessment of risk in 
Unit II. Ue will use that demand in our assess- 
ment cC suppression capability. 



GPM Gallons-per-minute (gpm) delivery capability is a 
Delivery method of expressing suppression capability in 
Capability terms of gallons of water per minute that can be 
effectively applied by the fire fighting forces. 
This allows a direct comparison with the gpm 
demand expressions that may be calculated for 
target hazards. While gpm delivery capability 
is not an all-inclusive expression of fire sup- 
pression capability, it provides a standard 
measure that can be applied to a variety of 
situations . 

Starting with a calculated tire flow demand for 
the location under consideration (obtained from 
Unit II: Risk Analysis), this method measures how 
well the fire fighting force can deliver the 
calculated fire flow. 

The gpm delivery capability for a particular fire 
department or a particular location is most 
accurately determined by observing actual fire- 
ground operations or full-scale drill activities. 
The fire department's actual capability is 
influenced by numerous factors, including (but 
not limited to) response time and distance, water 
supply, apparatus type, condition and arrangement, 
the number of personnel responding, their training 
and physical condition, the command system, stan- 
dard operating procedures, and the number and 
type of support functions which are required at a 
particular scene. 

The suppression capability evaluation is based on 
two separate assessments of fireground operations. 
Initial attack evaluation examines the fire de- 
partment's ability to respond quickly and place 
an effective offensive attack in operation. 
Sustained attack evaluation is based on the fire 
department's ability to launch a heavy defensive 
fireground operation. In both cases, the evalu- 
ation is based on an effective gpm flow rate that 
can be applied. 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Initial The measurement of suppression capability must 
Attack include both initial attack operations that 
And Full attempt to quickly deal with marginal situations 
Scale before they get out of control and full-scale 
Operations firefighting operations that can be assembled and 
placed into operation against major fires. The 
measurements must include not only the ability 
to apply water to the fire but also the ability 
to engage in search and rescue, forcible entry, 
ventilation, preservation of property, and addi- 
tional support activities as required by the 
situation. 

Time is a critical factor in evaluating suppres- 
sion capability since a fire can be expected to 
grow larger until the suppression capability over- 
comes the fire. The longer it takes to deliver 
effective suppression capability, the more gpm 
flow should be required to control it. 

A relatively small initial attack flow may be able 
to control a fire before it requires a much larger 
flow if the initial attack is provided quickly. 
If the fire exceeds the effective initial attack 
capability, the fire can be expected to grow 
until the suppression capability catches up and 
overcomes it. Both factors are important in 
estimating the effectiveness of fireground opera- 
tions and most fire departments attempt to pro- 
vide effective offensive and defensive suppression 
capability. 

Initial Initial attack capability should be considered in 

Attack--10 terms of a reflex action by the fire department. 

Minutes When an alarm is received, the fire department 

should be capable of responding quickly and with 

adequate equipment and personnel to place a 

reasonable fire attack in action without delay. 

For study purposes, we will evaluate initial 
attack 10 minutes after the fire department is 
notified of the alarm. This 10-minute time frame 
allows 5 minutes (more or less) to receive the 
alarm and dispatch companies and for the first 
units to travel to the scene. This would provide 
an additional 5 minutes (more or less) to place 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 
4_4 NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



the initial attack, equipment and personnel in 
operation on che fireground. If the first units 
take more than 5 minutes to reach the scene, this 
simply leaves less time for setup prior to the 
evaluation. The 10-minute assessment examines 
how much suppression capability can be placed in 
operation within the first critical minutes after 
an alarm is received. 

Interior Offensive Tactics 

Initial attack capability should be measured 
based on the ability to place effective handlines 
in operation in interior positions, assuming that 
the initial attack team will engage in interior 
offensive fire fighting, attempting to gain con- 
trol of the fire before it exceeds their capabili- 
ty. This requires the assignment of personnel to 
activities that are not strictly involved in 
water application, such as search and rescue, 
forcible entry, and ventilation. The necessary 
commitment to these activities depends on the 
type and complexity of the target hazard- being 
used as the object of consideration. 

The initial attack is geared toward offensive 
fire fighting tactics, attempting to rapidly gain 
control of the fire before it grows too large. 

If the fire has already surpassed this stage, the 
initial attack force should be able to initiate 
some form of "holding action" until reinforcements 
arrive . 



Sustained Thirty minutes is used as the basic time frame 
Attack-- for measurement of the fire department's ability 
30 Minutes to provide the full gpm fire flow for a parti- 
cular location. This reflects a time that permits 
the initial attack force to arrive, begin opera- 
tions, call for reinforcements, and then allow 
time for the additional units to respond and 
get into action. In urban areas, this might 
allow for a heavy response of multiple-alarm 
companies; while in rural areas, mutual-aid com- 
panies might not be able to travel the required 
distance in 30 minutes. This is a simple 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



4-5 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



reflection of reality, since a fire will normally 
continue to grow until, the fire suppression 
force is strong enough to overcome it or until it 
runs out of fuel. 



Exterior Defensive Strategy 

In this case, we will be considering fire suppres- 
sion capability in terms of an exterior defensive 
fire fighting operation, designed to confine a 
"fully involved" fire to a limited area. 

The full gpm fire flow demand is based on maximum 
involvement of the fire building and normally 
calls for the application of master streams or 
large handlines. The application of large volumes 
of water is more feasible if apparatus and equip- 
ment are adequately sec up for this type of opera- 
tion. Heavy gpm fire flow application requires 
an adequate and reliable water supply and the 
necessary deployment of apparatus and equipment 
to place large streams in effective operating 
positions . 

The term "sustained attack" relates to the fact 
that defensive fire fighting operations may re- 
quire the application of the full gpm fire flow 
for extended lengths of time. When a defensive 
operation, is necessary, it is assumed that the 
fire building itself cannot be saved and the pur- 
pose of the attack is to protect the community 
from the fire. 



Offensive The evaluation of an initial interior offensive 
vs. attack and an exterior defensive operation tests 
Defensive the ability of the fire department to handle two 
(Marginal very different types of fireground action. While 
Situations) situations encountered under actual field condi- 
tions may not fall strictly into one category or 
the other, this provides a reasonable basis of 
evaluation that can be used by most fire depart- 
ments. We will operate under the basic assumption 
that a fire department is capable of providing a 
strong initial attack force and that an adequate 
sustained defensive attack is probably capable 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 

, , NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 

4-6 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



of performing the various combinations of activi- 
ties that may 'be required on the fireground. (A 
further level of analysis could be directed toward 
the specific needs of a specifically identified 
target hazard.) 



Determining Initial attack and sustained attack capabilities 
Suppression can be evaluated in order to determine gpm avail- 
Capability able. In each category, the result is an assumed 
effective fire flow application rate in gallons 
per minute. 

The risk analysis for various target hazards pro- 
vided gpm demand calculations for each rated 
location. The calculated suppression capability 
(in gpm) and the gpm demand calculated for the 
risk can be compared for both initial attack and 
sustained attack. Providing a separate evaluation 
in each category allows attention to be directed 
specifically where a strength or weakness is 
detected . 

The best method of evaluating suppression capa- 
bility is by conducting full-scale evaluation 
exercises or by observing actual fire fighting 
operations. The persons performing the evaluation 
should make every effort to reflect actual response 
times and operational methods that would be used 
on the fireground. This may require the develop- 
ment of a script detailing the arrival times of 
different companies and the assignments they will 
be expected to perform upon arrival. 

When full-scale simulation exercises are not feas- 
ible, the evaluators must estimate the capabili- 
ties of the suppression forces. This may involve 
writing a "tactical deployment script" around 
the expected personnel and equipment, taking into 
account their expected arrival sequence and the 
evaluator's best estimate of their capabilities. 
This should be verified by some basic field 
exercises, whenever possible. 

Evaluation The evaluation of initial attack capability 
of is best accomplished by having a full, initial 
Initial alarm assignment perform these evolutions in a 
Attack realistic setting, such as a training academy 
Capability drill yard. Time must be factored into the prob- 
lem by allowing companies to begin action after a 

NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 

NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 

4-7 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



time equivalent to their response time to the 
assumed location. Hoselines should be laid, con- 
nected, and charged, while personnel are assigned 
to perform all of the required functions. At the 
10 -minute point, all action should be stopped 



and evaluated. 



The evaluation is based on gallons per minute 
effectively applied to combat the fire within 10 
minutes after the alarm is received. Since effec- 
tive, initial attack fire fighting requires more 
than the application of water on the fire, addi- 
tional assignments and tasks are identified that 
must be fulfilled by the initial attack force. 
Failure to assign personnel and equipment to nec- 
essary tasks results in a deduction of gallons 
per minute from the effective flow to compensate. 
The net figure is the "effective initial attack 
gpm flow." 

• Hoselines - Attack lines must be stretched 200 
feet from apparatus and placed in operation by 
two personnel with full protective clothing, 
using SCBA. Both personnel must stay with the 
line to provide for mobility. 

a. 1 1/2-inch lines--100 gpm- 

b. 1 3/4- inch lines--150 gpm 

c. 2-inch lines--200 gpm 

d. 2 1/2-inch lines--250 gpm 
(requires 3 personnel) 

Attack lines must be supported by an uninter- 
rupted water supply. A pump operator must 
be assigned for each pumper supplying water, 
unless automatic controls are provided. 

• Search and Rescue - Sufficient personnel must 
be assigned to perform search and rescue in 
any occupied structures. A minimum of two 
personnel must be assigned. Additional teams 
of two personnel should be assigned for each 
2,000 square feet of occupied area subject to 
smoke, heat, or fire. High occupancy areas 
may require additional personnel for this 
function. 



_^ NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 

4-8 NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Support Functions - At least one firefighter 
must be ass igned to perform forcible entry, 
utility control, and related support functions 
for each handline placed in operation. 

Ventilation - At least two personnel must be 
assigned to perform ventilation ahead of ini- 
tial attack. When roof-top ventilation is 
indicated, these personnel must be able to 
reach the roof (via ladders) and have primary 
ventilation accomplished within the 10-minute 
time frame. 

Command - At least one individual must be 
assigned as the fireground commander to direct 
operations. This person should not be- engaged 
in any other fire fighting functions. 



An effective initial attack of 150 gpra may be 
reasonable for some locations, such as small 
single- family dwellings. For multistory occu- 
pancies, an initial attack of 350 or 400 gpm may 
be required. Very few fire departments can pro- 
vide more than 500 gpn as an initial attack 
within a 10-minute time period. The evaluation 
must reflect the nature of the hazard and the 
consequences of an ineffective initial attack. 

An inadequate initial attack infers that the fire 
will probably grow to fully involve the defined 
fire area, requiring a sustained attack at the 
calculated fire flow rate to control the situation. 

There is a significant possibility that the fire 
may have already surpassed the capability of a 
strong initial attack by the time firefighters 
arrive. Whatever the circumstances, we must as- 
sume that the fire could potentially reach the 
"full involvement" stage. Strong initial attack 
reduces the probability that the fire will reach 
this stage and/or buys time to provide for rescue 
and evacuation. 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 4-9 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Standard Time-Temperature Curve 

(Ref: NFPA Handbook, 14th Ed., P. 6-80) 





































































































/ 


f*~ 




























/ 
































/ 


















































Determining Points 
for Curve 
1000 Fat 5 Mm 
1300°F at 10 Mm 
1550 "F at 30 Mm 
1700"F at 1 Hr 
1850"F at 2 Hr. 
2000 J F at 4 Hr 
2300 "F at 8 Hr 































































































































Time in Hrs. 



Time This chart illustrates the growth of fire pro- 
Temperature duced temperatures during the course of a 
Curve structural test fire. These time/ temperature 
relationships are based on field experiments and 
actual fires. The principal point to note is the 
rapid initial buildup and slow, steady climb 
after that. 

At 10 minutes a temperature of 1300° F can be 
expected to exist at the ceiling. Flashover, 
the point at which all combustible surfaces of a 
room blast into flame at once, can be expected to 
occur between 800° F and 1000° F. As can be seen 
on the chart these conditions can be expected to 
occur within 15 minutes after ignition. Frequent- 
ly, the first attack lines are getting into 
position about 15 minutes into the fire the point 
at which flashover can occur. 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



4-10 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



G.P.M.-MODE RELATIONSHIP 




TIME 



GPM/tlode Of all the restraints placed on the fire incident 
lationship manager, the most basic is the amount of fire 
which can be attacked with the gallons per 
minute flow available. If the available flow 
is equal to or greater than the need, an 
aggressive offense can be mounted. When the 
flow requirements exceed that which can be 
provided, a defensive posture must be assumed. 

In the diagram above we see that from the in- 
stant of ignition to final extinguishment a 
certain amount of water can extinguish the 
fire. This volume of water varies with the 
progress of the fire. As the fire growth 
curve increases, the amount of water required 
increases. If a line is drawn from the gallons- 
per-minute column on the lift until it inter- 
sects the fire growth curve, the amount of 
fire which can be controlled by that amount 
of water will be indicated. 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



4-11 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



If upon arrival it is discovered that a flow 
of 750 gallons per minute is required and the 
available flow is only 500 gallons per minute, 
it is obvious that a defensive mode is indi- 
cated. Additional resources must be summoned 
if an offensive mode is desired. Because the 
fire has not reached its maximum intensity, it 
will continue to grow and require more and 
more water. The fire manager must recognize 
this and consider it when additional resources 
are requested. If at the time of arrival a 
deficit of 250 gpm existed, a request for an 
additional 250 gpm will still require a de- 
fensive mode because the fire will have contin- 
ued to grow and will require more than 750 gpm 
by the time the additional lines are in place. 

Evaluation The objective of full, sustained-attack strategy 
of is to deliver the maximum fire attack possible in 
Sustained a defensive configuration, utilizing master 
Attack and large handlines. This assumes total involve- 
Capability ment of the fire building (or buildings) with all 
fire department efforts directed toward containing 
and controlling the flames to prevent further 
spread. The 30-minute time frame is selected to 
provide a reasonable amount of time for rein- 
forcements to respond, after the initial assign- 
ment, and to be placed in action. 

This strategy is dependent upon a reliable water 
supply to sustain a high volume flow for extended 
periods. It also requires the deployment of per- 
sonnel and equipment for their maximum delivery 
capability. Due to the logistics involved, it may 
not be feasible to conduct a large-scale exercise 
to test the full gpm fire flow capability. It 
may be necessary to judge the water supply capacity 
through standard test methods and to judge fire 
department capability on the performance of repre- 
sentative companies. Records of major fires that 
have occurred in the past may be helpful in making 
this determination. 

Full gpm fire flow assumes that all efforts on 
the scene of a fire will be directed toward 
developing a high volume suppression effort. In 
real situations, however, major commitments may be 
made to search and rescue or other functions that 
prove to be more critical than water application 
at the particular incident. Since it is unlikely 

NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 
4-12 NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



that any one incident would call for maximum ef- 
fort in all facets of fire fighting at the same 
time, maximum gpm fire flow capability is taken 
as a representative activity to evaluate fire- 
ground operational capability. In some cases, the 
student may want to measure the fire department's 
capability in a different type of scenario (i.e., 
rescue capability at a nursing home or the ability 
to support interior high-rise fire fighting opera- 
tions). These decisions are highly subjective 
and may be utilized by the students according to 
their local circumstances. 

Procedure for Estimation of Full GPM Fire Flow 

1 . Evaluate the water supply available through 
public mains and hydrants, drafting sources, 
other storage supplies, and/or tanker shuttles 
that can be placed in operation within 30 
minutes. The fire department cannot deliver 
more water than is readily available. 

2. Utilizing the maximum firefighting resources 
(including mutual aid, automatic aid, re- 
serves, etc.) that can respond and be placed 
in action within 30 minutes, calculate the 
maximum gpm flow that can be applied with 
master stream devices and handlines. Note: 
water supply volume must be available from 
Step 1 . 

3. A fireground command system and communi- 
cations must be in place to facilitate co- 
ordinated operations. The evaluation must be 
based on a logical strategic deployment of 
resources around the assumed target hazard-- 
not simply an exercise in throwing water up 
in the air. 

4. The deployment of personnel and equipment 
should be plotted on a fireground map, taking 
into account personnel and equipment assign- 
ments, capabilities, response times, and set- 
up times. The objective is to deliver the 
greatest possible gpm flow within 30 minutes. 

5. In the evaluation, the need for specialized 
equipment should be considered (aerial de- 
vices, foam equipment, etc.). Where these 
are needed and not available, an obvious 
deficiency is pointed out to those making 
evaluation. 

NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 

NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 4-13 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



A "fully involved" situation would suggest that 
all of the contents would be destroyed by the 
fire and any remaining occupants would be lost. 
Depending on the construction, an adequate sus- 
tained attack could possibly "save" the structure. 
In some cases, the entire structure and contents 
might simply be written off as unsalvageable when 
the fire has reached this stage. The protection 
of exposures might be the only significant fire- 
ground priority. 

The ability of the fire department to provide a 
sustained attack equal to the calculated fire 
flow demand for the hazard indicates that the 
fire should be successfully confined, whether or 
not the target hazard itself is totally destroyed. 
If the target hazard is totally isolated from 
exposures, it may not make any difference whether 
or not the calculated fire flow can be delivered. 
If all of the occupants are out, how important is 
it to save the building? Once the target hazard 
is lost, the important considerations are the 
exposures. The ability to provide the calculated 
fire flow is significant only as it relates to 
the__consequences of not providing it. 



Between A great deal of very significant fireground 
Initial activity takes place between the extremes of 
Attack initial attack and the maximum flow capability of 
and sustained attack. The fire department reinforces 
Sustained the initial attack by attempting to limit the 
Attack spread of the fire before it reaches "full in- 
volvement." These two extremes are used simply as 
benchmarks, examining a fire department's suppres- 
sion capability in two different configurations, 
which suggest effectiveness under varying circum- 
stances . 



Inferences The evaluation of initial attack capability and 
From sustained attack capability gives an indication 

Evaluation of how well the fire suppression forces are pre- 
pared to deal with the target hazards that they 
protect. A serious deficiency in either category 
should identify the potential need for improve- 
ments. This may direct responsible officers to 
consider improvements in equipment, staffing, 
operating procedures, or other factors that could 
improve performance. It could also identify weak- 
nesses in the water supply that require attention. 

NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 

4-14 NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Generally, this process is valuable in identi- 
fying weaknesses in the fire department's ability 
to deal with predictable situations in the exist- 
ing environment. These may also lead to different 
strategies that could reduce the hazard level in 
the community. These concepts are discussed in 
the next unit. 

The evaluation of suppression capability should 
be weighed in relation to the nature of the risk, 
in addition to the gpra fire flow demand calcu- 
lations . 

The evaluation of fire suppression capability can 
provide a measure of how well the fire department 
is prepared to engage in effective fireground 
operations. While this is highly dependent upon 
the resource levels of a department-- in terms of 
personnel, equipment, and response times--it also 
reflects on the training and standard operating 
procedures employed. Adjustments in training and 
procedures may substantially improve performance. 

NFPA A standard evaluation method for initial attack 
1410 capabilities presented is NFPA Standard 1410-- 
Initial Fire Attack. This standard focuses on 
the ability to deliver 400 gpra with two attack 
lines and a larger backup line within a reasonable 
time. The water application capability is an 
important aspect of initial fireground operations, 
but should be considered in relation to the need 
for search and rescue, ventilation, forcible 
entry, and other support functions that must be 
carried out simultaneously. The need to perform 
these necessary functions compromises the ability 
to place attack hoselines in operation when per- 
sonnel resources on the fireground are limited. 

The evaluation method in NFPA 1410 may be used as 
a starting point in estimating the 10-minute 
initial attack capability of a fire department, 
with adjustments to allow for these additional 
necessary functions. The personnel required to 
perform these other functions must be in addition 
to those used for placing hoselines in action (or 
they must be subtracted from the number of person- 
nel available for working with hoselines) . This 
provides an evaluation measure in terms of gpm, 
which can be effectively applied, while simul- 
taneously providing fireground command, search 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 4 _ 15 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



and rescue, ventilation, forcible entry, and 
support functions with the initial attack force. 

The ability to apply heavy flow rate fire attack 
with master stream appliances and large handlines 
is similarly related to equipment, procedures, 
training, personnel available, and water supply. 

Training Good procedures and regular training should be 
Needed directed to maximize the capability of the avail- 
able manpower and equipment. While the evaluation 
results may point to obviously needed adjustments 
in personnel and equipment, the most effective 
utilization of available resources may provide a 
significant improvement in total firefighting 
capability. 

The training function should focus on all areas 
of fireground operations, considering changes in 
equipment and resource levels in addition to 
training and procedures. Uhen evaluating the 
current capability of the fire suppression forces, 
attention should be directed to the maximization 
of capabilities at the available resource levels, 
in addition to the impact of changing resource 
levels . 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



4 _ 16 NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



CONCORD COLLEGE 



Concord College sits on a beautiful campus, 2 miles from 
the center of town. Its 500-acre campus is considered a 
showplace of American college architecture today. The 
campus buildings range in age from 3 to 80 years and are 
kept in elegant condition by the college's high endowments, 
generous alumni and steep tuition rates. 

Almost 3,600 students live in the dormitories on campus. 
These dorms range from an 8-story fire-resistive building 
constructed in 1977 to a series of three-story edifices 
constructed in the 1920' s. 

The older dorms are ordinary construction (brick-wood 
joisted) and feature long corridors with rooms on both 
sides. Approximately 10 years ago, wired-glass partitions 
were installed on each floor to separate the stairs from 
the corridors, but many of the doors are habitually wedged 
ooen by the residents to provide better ventilation. 
Transoms over the room doors are also kept open for the 
same purpose. Manually activated fire alarm systems were 
installed at the same time as the stairway partitions. 

Classroom and administrative buildings on campus are of 
similar vintage and construction as the dorms. The fronts 
of the buildings are dominated by white columns, and the 
backs of most buildings feature traditional fire escapes. 
Automatic sprinklers have been installed in the basements 
of a few of the larger buildings. The buildings erected 
since 1968 have dry standpipes in the stairways. The 
only fire protection equipment in most areas is comprised 
of pressurized water extinguishers and 1-1/2-inch hose 
cabinets . 

The campus is served by an extension of the town's water 
system. An 3- inch line feeds a loop around the campus 
and hydrants are conveniently located. The water supply 
was recently tested at 2,375 gpm. 

The campus is patrolled at night by a security force of 
three roving personnel and one supervisor. 



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4-17 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Grace Hall 

CONCORD COLLEGE 



cm Back Stairs Fire Escape 




3 STORIES 

ORDINARY CONSTRUCTION 



13034 sq, ft, PER FLOO 
BUILT IN 1927 



DORMITORY OCCUPANCY 2 STUDENTS PER ROOM 

36 ROOMS PER FLOOR 

EACH ROOM IS 19'x12' (228 sq, ft,) 

CEILINGS ARE 10' HIGH 

CORRIDORS ARE 10' WIDE national fire academy 



4-18 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



HILLSIDE VOLUNTEER FIRE DEPARTMENT 



The HilLside Volunteer Fire Department protects a town of 
7,250 population and a surrounding area of 80 square miles 
that is mostly rural, Most of the 46 members of the depart- 
ment live and work within a 1-mile radius of the fire 
station and respond to alarms from their radio pagers 
and/or the siren on the firehouse. The average response on 
a structural alarm is 30 members and the first pumper is 
usually on the street in less than 2 minutes. Response 
time within the town averages less than 5 minutes-- from 
the time the alarm is received until the first company is 
on the scene. 

The department operates two first-line 1,000-gpm pumpers 
with 750-gallon tanks; a 3,000-gallon tanker with a 500-gpm 
pump and a portable tank; a well-equipped rescue squad 
truck; and a mini-pumper. Two older 750-gpm pumps are also 
kept in reserve. 

Mutual aid is available from Harbrook, 12 miles away, that 
can respond with a 1,000-gpm pumper and 4,000-gallon tanker, 
staffed by eight volunteers. Woodside can respond from 16 
miles away with two 750-gpm pumpers and ten firefighters; 
while Fairwell responds from 19 miles away with a 1,250-gpm 
pumper, a 2,000-gallon tanker, and eight firefighters. The 
closest aerial device is the snorkel from Elmwood , 21 miles 
west, that has a 1, 500-gpm pump on board and usually comes 
with a crew of six volunteers. 

All of the departments are dispatched by the county com- 
munications center in Elmwood, and all units are equipped 
with common radio frequencies. The mutual aid system is 
well coordinated and has been in operation for over 30 
years. All of the volunteer firefighters are trained and 
certified by the state fire training organization, and 
all of the apparatus is in good condition. Most of the 
departments use 4- inch supply hose and preconnected 
lines , and all apparatus are well equipped with hand tools 
and breathing apparatus. 

There is a water system in the town that can supply 3,500 
gpm for one hour, and hydrants are installed on a regular 
basis. Beyond the limits of the town, the water supply 
depends on tankers and drafting sources. 



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NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 

4-19 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



INITIAL ATTACK 

TACTICAL DEPLOYMENT STRATEGY FOR HILLSIDE VOLUNTEER 
FIRE DEPARTMENT'S ATTACK ON GRACE HALL 



A fire in a second- floor dorm room erupted at 0230 hours. 

The room is well involved and fire has extended to the 

corridor on the second floor by the time the first engine 
arrives . 

The chief arrives on Engine 1 and assumes command. He orders 
Engine 1 to lay a 4-inch line to the front of the building 
and advance a 2-inch line to the second floor. Engine 2 
is ordered to lay a line to the rear and take a 2-inch 
attack line up the back stairway. 

All other personnel on these companies, plus the squad and 
mini-punper crews, are assigned to search and rescue on 
the second floor due to the high life hazard. The chief 
is counting on a high GPM flow rate and the heavy commitment 
to search and rescue as the best tactics for this situation, 
consciously neglecting ventilation and support functions. 



Response 

The initial attack response sequence is as follows 



Unit 


Arr 


ival T 


ime 


Personnel 


E1 




0236 




6 


E2 




0237 




6 


SQ1 




0238 




6 


MINI 1 




0239 




3 


TANKER 1 




0242 




2 


E3 




0243 




4 


E4 




0245 




3 



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4-20 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



INITIAL ATTACK 

STRATEGIC DEPLOYMENT CHART FOR HILLSIDE VOLUNTEER 
FIRE DEPARTMENT'S ATTACK ON GRACE HALL 



UNIT 


ASSIGNMENT 


PERSONNEL 


GPM 


E-l 


Command 


1 







Pump operator 


1 







2" Attack line 


2 


200 



Search & Rescue 



E-2 Pump operator 1 

2" Attack line 2 200 

Search & Rescue 3 



Sql Search & Rescue 



M1 Search & Rescue 



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NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



4-21 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



INITIAL ATTACK CAPABILITY 

RATING FORM 



All personnel must be provided with full protective clothing 
and SCBA. Personnel without proper equipment do not receive 
any credit. 



1 . Attack Lines in Operation 

x 1-1/2" at 100 gpm = gpm 

x 1-3/4" at 150 gpm = + gpm 

x 2" at 200 gpm = + gpm 

x 2-1/2" at 250 gpm = + gpm 

Total GPM Flowing 

2. Uater Supply 

Is adequate uninterrupted water supply in position to 
maintain total gpm flowing? 

If not, reduce to a flow which is assured as reliable. 
A pump operator must be assigned for each apparatus 
delivering water. 

Note: Tanker supply is acceptable when shuttle system 
is in place to maintain the total gpm flowing or if 
sufficient supply can be delivered to maintain the 
attack for 30 minutes. 

Reliable GPM Flowing 

3. Search and Rescue 



Are required number of personnel assigned to perform 
search and rescue? Reduce gpm flowing by 50 gpm for 
each person not assigned. 

Required: Assigned: Reduction: gpm 

GPM Flowing 



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NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 

4-23 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Support Functions 

Are personnel assigned to perform necessary support 
functions? Reduce gpm flowing by 50 gpra for each 
person not assigned. 

Required: Assigned: Reduction: gpm 

GPU Flowing 



Ventilation 

Was ventilation team assigned and in position to accom- 
plish ventilation within 10 minutes? If not, deduct 
100 gpm. 

Required: Assigned: Reduction: gpm 

GPM Flowing 

Command and Control 

Is fireground commander in position and in control of 
operations? If not, reduce gpm flowing by 50%. 

Required: Assigned: Reduction: Gpm 



Effective Initial Attack GPM Flow 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



4-24 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



SUSTAINED ATTACK 

TACTICAL DEPLOYMENT STRATEGY FOR HILLSIDE VOLUNTEER 
FIRE DEPARTMENT'S ATTACK ON GRACE HALL 



Ue will assume that the entire Hillside Volunteer Fire 
Department and the mutual aid from Harbrook and Uoodside 
can respond and be placed in operation within 30 minutes. 

The limiting factor is going to be the 2,375 gpm water supply 
available on campus. Adequate personnel and equipment are 
available to take full advantage of the flow. The chief 
has the options of a tanker shuttle, drafting sources, or a 
relay operation to increase the flow to the 3,500 gpm demand 
needed . 

While any of these options are possible, none of them 
could be accomplished within the 30 -minute time frame. 
The additional mutual aid units which are responding could 
probably increase the flow to 3,500 gpm. 

The estimated GPM flowing at the 30-minute time limit is 
2,375 gpm or 68% of the calculated demand. There are no 
aerial devices on the scene to help protect Che exposures 
at this tine. The first aerial apparatus would not arrive 
for 10 more minutes and would probably not be in operation 
until at least 50 minutes after the inital alarm. 



Given these considerations, what do you think? 

1 . Can the fire building be saved? 

2. Can the exposures be saved? 

3. Can the occupants be saved? 



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NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER , oe 

4-25 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



SHALL GROUP ACTLVITY 
DIRECTIONS 



For the next hour and 20 minutes you will be involved in a 
small group activity applying the information and evaluation 
tools you have just learned. 

Your student manual for this unit contains the set of three 
scenarios which you used in Unit III. In addition there 
are descriptions of five fire departments. 

Your group will work with the same scenario and target 
hazzard buildings which you used in the last unit. 

Your instructor will assign a fire department which will 
provide the suppression capability to combat the scenario 

fire. 

Following the fire department descriptions is a set of 
worksheets needed to complete the following assignments. 

1 . Complete the strategy chart for the initial attack. 

2. Diagram the initial attack on the drawing provided. 

3. Complete the initial attack rating form. 

4. Complete the strategy chart for the sustained 
attack. 

5. Diagram the sustained attack using the drawing 
provided. 

6. Calculate the maximum G.P.M. 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER , nn 

4-27 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



BEARPAU SHOE COMPANY 



The Bearpaw Shoe Conpany has been one of the largest indus- 
tries in your area for over 75 years. Its complex of two- 
and three-story buildings is crowded into the heart of the 
industrial area, bordering on the central business district. 
Within the last 10 years, shoe production has declined sig- 
nificantly and parts of the complex have been sold and 
rented to a variety of other companies. The number of 
employees has remained about the same, however. 

In addition to the shoe company, parts of the complex are 
now occupied by a manufacturer of styrofoam cups, a tire 
distributor, a swimming pool supply company, a cabinet 
shop, a furniture wholesaler, and a truck body manufacturer. 
Each of these occupants has a portion of the complex ranging 
from a whole wing to part of a floor. 

The buildings were constructed in the early 1900 ' s , some of 
heavy timber and some of fire-resistive construction. All 
of the buildings have automatic sprinklers, supplied by an 
elevated water tank and a steam-driven, 1,500-gpm fire pump. 
The steam for the fire pump comes from the shoe factory's 
main boilers that used to run continuously. Now they are 
shut down at night and on weekends and it takes the plant 
engineer 15 minutes to get them fired up again. 

There is a system of yard hydrants with a good water sup- 
ply, connected to the private supply and a connection to 
the public water system. The public water system can 
deliver 1,250 gpm in this area of the city at 20 psi 
residual pressure. Static pressure is 50 psi. 

The complex is separated from the buildings on Commercial 
Street by a 20-foot wide alley. The three-and four-story 
buildings on Commercial street contain a variety of stores 
and businesses, many with apartments on the upper floors. 

Over the years, the plant's sprinkler system and fire bri- 
gade have controlled numerous fires without serious damage. 
The fire brigade was disbanded 5 years ago and since that 
time the public fire department has responded to a few 
small fires, each controlled by one sprinkler head. 

Your fire inspector has just returned from making an inspec- 
tion of. the property and informed you about the lack of 
steam for the boiler at night and on weekends. He is also 
concerned about the adequacy of the fixed fire protection 
in view of the changing occupancy. 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 

NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 4_29 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



ACADEMY MOTEL and FORT HILLIS HOTEL 



Several major loss-of-life fires in hotels and motels have 
received heavy exposure in the news media over the last 5 
years. A five-death fire in a city 200 miles away has 
finally caught the attention of your Mayor, who calls to 
ask about the vulnerability of your community to this type 
of disaster. You have been waiting for this opportunity to 
get your foot in the door for over 6 months—when you 
returned from a National Fire Academy course, " Fire Risk 
Analysis: A Systems Approach ." 

At your first meeting with the Mayor, you get to show her 
the risk analysis you have done on the hotels and motels 
in your community and the assessment of your current sup- 
pression capability. The Mayor gives you the green light 
to make proposals for changes to the entire council at a 
public meeting. You have 30 days to prepare. 

The hotels and motels in your community fall into several 
categories, but you have identified two groups that present 
an exceptional risk. Your assessment is reinforced by 
nationally reported experience with these types of buildings 
and a few "close calls" locally. While you have not had 
any hotel or motel deaths in your community lately, you 
have had one or two fires each year that could have been 
much worse with just slightly different circumstances. 

The first of two types of high risk occupancies that you 
have identified is the two-story enclosed corridor motel. 

You have such a motel, belonging to a major chain. This 
one has eight sections, linked together around a central 
courtyard having a swimming pool and recreation area. 

The construction is brick outer walls with wood partitions 
and floor/roof assemblies. The sections are divided by 
firewalls, with fire doors dividing the interior corridors 
at the firewalls. The fire doors are held open with 180°F 
fusible links. Each wing has at least one stairway join- 
ing the first and second floors. You are aware of several 
cases where the fire walls have been penetrated in the 
attic spaces to run air ducts or electrical lines between 
sections . 

The rooms open onto the central corridors from both sides, 
with an average of 60 rooms between firewalls (30 on each 
floor) . The room doors are solid core wood and many of 
them have spring-loaded hinges that make them self-closing. 
This chain has installed battery-operated smoke detectors 

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NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 4 _ 31 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



in all their rooms, but this is not required by any code. 
Manually activated local fire alarm systems are required. 
The only fire fighting equipment required by code is extin- 
guishers mounted every 150 feet in the corridors. Some of 
the hotels have pressurized water units and some have 2A 
10BC dry chemical units. 

Soft-drink machines and ice machines are installed under 
the stairs on the ground floor. Roll-away beds and maids' 
carts are often found in the corridors, although a small 
storage room is provided for them on each floor in each 
sect ion. 

These buildings were in compliance with the building code 
at the time of their construction. Changes in the code 
since that time required that corridor separation doors and 
room doors be self-closing and be kept closed at all times. 
Emergency lighting is now required in all exit corridors, 
and each room must have a smoke detector. These require- 
ments are not retroactive. 

The second type of high rise structure that creates some 
potential problems for you is the old Fort Hillis Hotel. 
It is typical in most respects. Built in 1911, it is ten 
stories tall, constructed with a concrete frame, and 
granite outer walls. It is considered a landmark and is 
on the National Registry of Historic Sites. 

There are 30 guest rooms per floor on the second through 
eighth floors. The ground floor and mezzanine include 
several meeting rooms, a ballroom, and two restaurants, 
all of which open onto the main lobby. The west end of the 
ninth floor contains a large ballroom that extends through 
the tenth floor. The remainder of the ninth floor contains 
the hotel offices and service areas, while four luxury 
suites occupy the remainder of the tenth floor. 

The corridors on each floor form a W-shaped pattern with a 
stairway on the end of each of three wings. These stairways 
were added in the early 1960 's and replaced old fire escapes. 
The stairs are enclosed by concrete on the outside walls 
and separated by wired-glass partition and door assemblies 
from the corridors. The doors are held open with fusible 
links . 

There are three elevators at the center of the building, and 
facing the elevator bank is a grand stairway extending from 
the lobby to the tenth floor. This stairway has marble 
steps, polished brass handrails, and polished oak paneling 
all the way up. This stairway is not separated from the 
corridors . 

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4_ 32 NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



The doors to the rooms are carved wood, without closers. 
When new locks were installed recently, the hotel paid 
over S 7 5 per door to match the antique faceplates around 
the locks. Each room has a transom to obtain air from 
the corridor. 

The basement, which is not sprinklered, contains a disco 
with an occupant capacity of 650. This is reached through 
an open stairway from the hotel lobby, although one exit 
door leads directly to a narrow outside stairway to the 
rear alley. 

In 1968, three hotel guests died in a fire on the fifth 
floor of this particular hotel. The fire started in a 
guest room and extended to the corridor. Twenty additional 
guests, four hotel employees, and eleven firefighters were 
overcome by smoke. Numerous rescues were made with ladders 
as smoke filled most of the building, but firefighters 
were successful in holding the fire to the room and a 
section of the corridor. At that time, officials praised 
the newly installed manual fire alarm system for alerting 
guests to the danger and promptly summoning firefighters 
through its direct connection to the fire department. 

The fire was extinguished by one 1-1/2-inch line from a 
hose cabinet and a 2-1/2-inch line from the dry standpipe 
in one of the exit stairway towers. The standpipes had 
been installed, along with the stairways and alarm system, 
during a major renovation project during 1960-1962. 

There was no building code at the time of the original 
construction. The renovation of 1962 brought it into 
compliance with the code in effect at that time, with 
several variances allowed to preserve the historic 
character of the building. 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 4 _ 33 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



BOARDING HOUSE 

Along the river bank in your community are stately old 
homes, built 60 to 70 years ago by the wealthy. These 
two-and three-story homes are a variety of wood and brick 
construction and average about 2,500 square feet in floor 
area on each level. They line both sides of a tree-shaded 
street, some facing the river and others backing it. 

In the last 20 or 30 years, the original families moved 
away, selling out to people who made them into apartments 
and rooming houses. Gradually, this changed the complexion 
of the neighborhood. 

Uithin the last few years, many owners began to contract 
with the State Department of Social Welfare to take in the 
former residents of some institutions for the handicapped 
on a residential custodial care basis. These homes must be 
inspected and certified by the state, which has preempted 
local jurisdiction over these state-contracted boarding 
homes. Local officials are not even informed when these 
facilities are licensed, and generally find out about them 
when they respond to emergency medical service calls. 

The state requirements call for at least one single-station 
smoke alarm in the hall on each floor plus a manual pull 
station that is part of the local alarm. Heat detectors 
must be in each room. A solid-core wood door must be 
installed in each stairway at each floor level, and there 
must be at least two stairways. 

There may be up to four occupants in each room. Most of 
them have obvious physical or mental handicaps. A single 
home may contain 30 to 50 occupants. The home is required 
to have at least one responsible person on duty at all 
times and fire drills must be held at least every 90 days. 
State inspectors check the homes annually to renew their 
permits and require the fire alarm system and extinguishers 
to be serviced each year. The telephone number of the 
local fire department must be posted adjacent to each 
telephone. 

SITUATION 

The Captain from Engine 3 returned from an EMS call at one 
of the homes and wrote a letter to the editor of the local 
newspaper proclaiming that "a grave hazard exists and nobody 
seems to care." Since the morning edition was delivered, 
you have been deluged with telephone calls asking if the 
allegations are true and what you propose to do about them. 

NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 

NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 4.35 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



PLUGTOWN FIRE DEPARTMENT 



The Plugtown Fire Department protects an urban population 
of 85,000. The department has 100 career employees and 
operates seven engine companies, two ladder companies, and 
one rescue company. Average staffing is one officer and 
two firefighters on five of the engine companies, while the 
other two engines and the rescue always have an officer and 
three firefighters. The ladder companies are assigned 
three firefighters, but usually have only two due to 
holidays, vacation, and sick leave. 

The first alarm assignment to target hazards is three 
engines, one ladder, and the rescue, along with the on-duty 
battalion chief. The average response time profile after 
dispatch is: 

1st Engine - 3.4 minutes 

2nd Engine - 4.2 minutes 

3rd Engine - 4.5 minutes 

Ladder - 4.5 minutes 

Rescue - 5.1 minutes 

Alarms are transmitted to stations by tone-activated radio. 
The normal time from receipt of a call until units are on 
the street is 2 minutes and 3 seconds. 

Off-duty personnel can be called back in case of a major 
fire, but this requires the dispatcher to call each indi- 
vidual person by telephone. Called-back personnel can 
place three, reserve engines and one ladder in service. 
Call-back is only used about once each year, and it takes 
at least 25 minutes to place a reserve company in service. 

Mutual aid is available on request from three adjoining 
departments. These departments can send up to three 
additional engine companies and two ladder companies, with 
an average response time of 14 minutes. These companies 
respond with a crew of either three or four. There are no 
common radio channels, and the equipment, training, and 
standard operating procedures are all different. Mutual 
aid may be called for major fires, but it is utilized only 
on large-scale operations. 

There are hydrants located in all areas of the city and the 
system is designed to supply a minimunm of 5,000 gpm in all 
nonresidential areas. In residential areas, a flow of 
1,500 gpm is assured, while hydrants in the central business 
district can supply over 7,500 gpm. 

NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 

NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 4 . 37 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Plugtown Fire 


Department 


Profile 




Response 






Time 


Personnel 


Engine 2 


5.4 m in. 


3 


Engine 3 


6.2 min. 


3 


Engine 1 


6.5 min. 


4 


Ladder 1 


6.5 min. 


2 


Rescue 1 


7 . 1 min. 


4 


Battalion 1 


7 . 1 min. 


1 
T7 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



4-38 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



HAZEL COUNTY FIRE DEPARTMENT 



The Hazel County Fire Deparment is comprised of 39 formerly 
independent volunteer companies serving a series of suburban 
areas adjacenC to a large city. The county provides career 
personnel to staff companies on weekdays, while most of the 
volunteers are at work in the city and some paid drivers at 
night. On weekends, the department operates almost entirely 
with volunteers. 

The 39 volunteer companies operate 73 first-line pumpers, 
21 ladder trucks, 6 heavy squad companies, 28 ambulances, 
and a variety of specialized equipment. Each company has a 
volunteer chief, deputy chief, and a full complement of 
officers. At night and on weekends, there are sufficient 
volunteers sleeping in or standing by at each station to 
place at least two pieces of apparatus on the street immedi-' 
ately, and often a third full crew can respond within 3 to 
4 minutes after an alarm. A full structural alarm at these 
times can bring a response of seven engines, two ladders, 
and a squad with five or six volunteers on each vehicle. 
The first unit usually arrives within 3.5 minutes and the 
entire assignment can be on the scene in less than 6 minutes. 
Several command officers also respond. 

During weekdays , the county provides enough personnel to 
staff one vehicle out of each station with a crew of three 
or four (averages 3.5 minutes). This brings a normal first- 
alarm response of 21 personnel on three engines, two ladder 
trucks, and a squad. (Response times do not change.) A 
career battalion chief also responds, but may be up to 8 
minutes away. Very few, if any, volunteers respond during 
these hours. 

Alarms are transmitted by a central communications center 
that takes an average of 90 seconds to process a call. The 
fully integrated radio system provides complete compati- 
bility with all units in the county and with surrounding 
jurisdictions. Automatic-aid and mutual-aid agreements 
provide integrated response and almost unlimited resources 
in the event of a major incident. At least 20 companies 
are within 20 minutes travel time of most areas. 

The water supply varies from less than 1,000 gpm in a few 
remote areas to over 10,000 gpm in a heavy industrial area. 
Water supply is generally adequate for the areas protected. 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 

NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 4-39 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Day 



Night: 



Hazel County Fire Department Profile 





Ri 


esponse 

Time 


Personnel 


Engine 11 




5 


3 


Ladder 1 




5.5 


4 


Engine 21 




6 


4 


Engine 31 




7 


3 


Ladder 3 




7.5 


3 


Squad 4 
+Battalion 


Ch: 


8 
ief 


4 

21 

1 


Engine 11 




5 


5 


Ladder 1 




5.5 


6 


Engine 21 




6 


6 


Engine 12 




6.5 


5 


Engine 31 




7 


5 


Ladder 3 




7.5 


6 


Engine 22 




7.5 


5 


Squad 4 




8 


6 


Engine 13 




8 


5 


Engine 32 9 
+Chief Officers 


5 

54 

5 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



4-40 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



FIREBIRD FIRE DEPARTMENT 



The Firebird Fire Department protects a modern city of 
300,000 population with 37 engine companies, II ladder 
companies, and 5 rescue companies. The engine and ladder 
companies are staffed with four personnel at all times, 
while the rescues always have two firefighter/paramedics. 
Four command officers, with aides, are on duty at all 
times . 

The normal response to a reported, working fire in a target 
hazard is four engine companies, two ladders, and a rescue, 
with two command officers. The response time profile is: 

1st Engine 3.4 minutes 

2nd Engine 4.5 minutes 

3rd Engine 5.0 minutes 

1st Ladder 5.0 minutes 

1st Command Officer 5.0 minutes 

4th Engine 6.5 minutes 

2nd Ladder 7.0 minutes 

2nd Command Officer 7.5 minutes 

Alarms are dispatched by a computer-aided dispatch system 
that takes 1 minute and 15 seconds to process an alarm and 
dispatch the assignment. Responses are integrated with 
adjoining jurisdictions on an automatic-aid basis with a 
shared dispatch center. 

Most structure fires are dispatched with an initial assign- 
ment of two engines, one ladder, and one command officer. 
This may be upgraded to the heavy assignment by the dis- 
patcher or by the first arriving unit. If the heavy assign- 
ment is not requested until the arrival of the first unit, 
none of the additional units arrive within the 10-minute 
limit. 

The amount of equipment available for major situations is 
almost unlimited, and water supply is not a problem. At 
most locations, 15 engine companies and 5 ladders can 
respond within 20 minutes. 

NOTE: Evaluate both heavy and light initial responses. 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 4-41 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Light 



Heavy 



Firebird Fire Department Profile 











Response 
Time 


Personnel 


Engine 1 


3.6 


4 


Engine 2 








5.7 


4 


Ladder 1 








6.2 


4 


Battalion 


Ch 


ief 


1 


6.2 


2 
T4 


Engine 1 








3.6 


4 


Engine 2 








5.7 


4 


Ladder 1 








6.2 


4 


Engine 3 








6.2 


4 


Battalion 


Ch 


ief 


1 


6.2 


2 


Engine 4 








7.8 


4 


Ladder 2 








8.3 


4 


Battalion 


Ch 


ief 


2 


3.3 


2 
23" 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



4-42 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



ARGO FIRE DEPARTMENT 



The \rgo Fire Department protects a city of 23,000 popula- 
tion and operates two fire stations. All personnel are 
full-time career firefighters. The normal duty shift oper- 
ates two pumpers, two mini-pumpers, and one ladder truck; 
with three personnel on each pumper, one on each mini-pumper 
and only a driver on the ladder truck. Two more pumpers 
and a snorkel are available to be operated by off-duty 
personnel on a call-back basis. Two deputy chiefs share 
command responsibilities on a rotating basis, responding 
from home at night. 

All of the on-duty personnel respond to alarms for target 
hazards, and all of the apparatus can be on the scene with- 
in 6 minutes of an alarm at any location in the city. 
The first pumper and mini-pumper usually arrive within 4 
minutes of the initial call to the fire department. 

A second alarm brings all of the reserve apparatus with 
off-duty personnel. These units usually arrive within 12 
minutes after the second alarm with an average of 15 per- 
sonnel. There are no mutual-aid departments within the 30- 
minute response- area. A few mutual-aid units can respond 
within 45 minutes. 

All of the pumpers are rated at 1,000 gpm. The water supply 
in the central part of the city is limited to 3,200 gpm and 
is severely restricted in some older areas of the community. 



Argo Fire Department Profile 





1 


Response 
Time 


Personnel 


Engine 


4 


3 


Mini 1 




4 


1 


Ladder 


1 


4.5 


1 


Engine 


2 


6 


3 


Mini 2 




6 


1 


DC 




8 


1 
TO 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 4-43 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



COLONIAL FIRE DEPARTMENT 



The Colonial Fire Department protects a large city with 42 
engine companies, 21 ladder companies, and 2 rescue squads. 
Due to severe budget reductions over the last 5 years, crews 
have been reduced to three on engines and four on ladders 
and rescues. There are seven battalion chiefs on duty. 
All engine companies operate 1,000-gpm pumpers with 500- 
gallon tanks. 

The central alarm office takes 1.5 minutes to transmit 
alarms and dispatches three engines, two ladders, and one 
rescue to target hazards, under the command of a battalion 
chief. Traffic problems result in an average response time 
of 4.5 minutes for the first engine company and 5 minutes 
for the first ladder. The remaining units arrive in less 
than 7 minutes. Apparatus is generally older and in poor 
condition, with a minimum of equipment. 

Multiple alarms can summon a virtually unlimited amount of 
assistance from the rest of the department and from mutual- 
aid departments. Ten engine companies and five ladder com- 
panies can respond to any location within 15 minutes. 
Water supply is generally adequate for any risk. 



Colonial Fire Department, Profile 





1 






Response 
Time 


Personnel 


Engine 


6 


3 


Ladder 


1 






6.5 


4 


Engine 


2 






7 


3 


Engine 


3 






8.5 


3 


Ladder 


2 






8.5 


4 


Battal: 


Lon 


Ch 


ief 1 


8.5 


1 
18 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 4 _ 45 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



REMOTE COUNTY FIRE DEPARTMENT 



The Remote County Fire Department uses full-time, on-call, 
and call-back career personnel to protect a sparsely popu- 
lated area. Host of the county is rural, but there are 
pockets of development throughout most of the county. 

Initial response is usually two pumpers and a 3,000-gallon 
tanker, each with two personnel. The pumpers have 1,000- 
gallon tanks and 750-gpm pumps, since most of the area has 
no water supply system. (When hydrants are available, they 
are limited to 1,000 gpm or less.) Additional personnel 
are dispatched to structure fires, responding in their own 
vehicles or picking up additional apparatus. 

The average response times (after receipt of the call at 
the communications center) are: first pumper, 7 minutes; 
second pumper, 13 minutes; tanker, 15 minutes. Additional 
personnel response times are: two in 3 minutes; two in 10 
minutes; and two in 12 minutes. 

A second alarm will duplicate the original response with an 
average travel time of 20 minutes for all responding person- 
nel and equipment (after the request for the second alarm) . 



Remote County Fire Department Profile 





1 


Response 
Time 


Personnel 


Engine 


7 

8 

10 

12 


2 

2 

2/6 for initial attack 

2 


Engine 


2 


13 


2 


Tanker 


1 


15 


2 


Engine 


3 


27 


2 


Engine 


4 


27 


2 


Tanker 


2 


27 


_2 

18/+6 for initial attack 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER , In 

4-47 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



SUPPRESSION CAPABILITY EXERCISE: 
DETERMINING INITIAL ATTACK GPri 

STRATEGIC DEPLOYMENT CHART 

UNIT ASSIGNMENT PERSONNEL GPMs 



TOTAL GPM APPLIED: 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 

4-49 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Bearpaw Shoe Co. 



US 30 




Commercial St. 

(NUMBERS IN CORNERS REPRESENT NUMBER OF FLOORS.) 
NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



4-51 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



BEARPAW SHOE CO. 



ENCLOSED BRIDGE 
AT 2ND FLOOR 



120' 




50' 



METAL SHED 
20' HIGH 
USED FOR 
TIRE STORAGE 



3 STORIES 9600 sq, ft, PER FLOOR 
HEAVY TIMBER CONSTRUCTION 
INCLUDES ONE OPEN STAIRWAY, 
ONE ENCLOSED STAIRWAY 
AND AN OPEN FREIGHT ELEVATOR 
CEILINGS ARE 14' HIGH 

GROUND FLOOR - TIRES 

SECOND FLOOR - STYROFOAM CUPS 

THIRD FLOOR - FURNITURE 

NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



OCCUPANCY 
STORAGE 



4-52 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



ACADEMY MOTEL 



335' 



c 
6 



O) 

c 
m 



A-Wing 



O) 

c 

6 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



4-53 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Motel 
D-Wing 



B£ 



202 I 



D201 



D204 



D203 



D206 



D205 



D208 



D207 



Fire wall 



D210 D209 



D212 D211 



D214 



D213 



D216 I |D215 



D218 D217 



D220 



JD219 



D222 



JD221 



D224 D223 



D226 



D225 



D228 D227 



D230 



D229 



m 



11,750 sq. ft./floor 
Room : 330 sq. ft. 
(22 ft. x 15 ft.) 

Corridor : 6 ft. wide 

Ceilings : 8 ft. 



^ Fire 



wall 



50' 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



4-54 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



FORT HELLIS HOTEL 

(BLOCK PLAN) 

THREE-LEVEL PARKING GARAGE 



STANDPIPES 



m- — — fig 



& 



HOTEL 



MAIN 
ENTRANCE 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



4-55 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Fort Hillis Hotel 

Typical Floor 



ummc 



□pay 



\ / 



MP 



12' Wide Corridors 

25,680 Sq. Ft. Per Floor 

12' Ceilings 

Avg. Room = 480 Sq. Ft. C20' x 24*) 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



4-56 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



RIVERSIDE BOARDING HOME 



BLOCK PLAN 










NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



4-57 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



RIVERSIDE BOARDING HOME 

2ND FLOOR 









IIIUIIlllllll 


EXTERI 




■ • < 








Ik 
















3 




3 


1 

/ 


3 








/ 








3 


A 






/ 


2 


. 
















\ 






2 












3 






\ 


\ 






95' 




















\ 




\ 






2 






f 


ui 




2 






jjimiii 

IrTJititj 








\ 




3 










2 






\ 
















1 DOWN 


\ 






3 










" 














BALCONY 



ORDINARY CONSTRUCTION ATTIC - 28500 cu, ft, 

2 STORIES WITH ATTIC CORRIDORS ARE 5' WIDE 

USED FOR STORAGE MQST RQ0MS ARE 15 > x 1 

NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



4-5I 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



INITIAL ATTACK CAPABILITY 
RATING F0RI1 



All personnel must be provided with full protective clothing 
and SCBA. Personnel without proper equipment do not receive 
any credit. 



1 . Attack Lines in Operation 

x 1-1/2" at 100 gpm = gpm 

x 1-3/4" at 150 gpm = + gpm 

x 2" at 200 gpm = + gpm 

x 2-1/2" at 250 gpm = + gpm 

Total GPM Flowing 

2. Water Supply 

Is adequate uninterrupted water supply in position to 
maintain total gpm flowing? 

If not, reduce to a flow which is assured as reliable. 
A pump operator must be assigned for each apparatus 
delivering water. 

Note: Tanker supply is acceptable when shuttle system 
is in place to maintain the total gpm flowing or if 
sufficient supply can be delivered to maintain the 
attack for 30 minutes. 

Reliable GPI1 Flowing 

3. Search and Rescue 



Are required number of personnel assigned to perform 
search and rescue? Reduce gpm flowing by 50 gpm for 
each person not assigned. 

Required: Assigned: Reduction: gpm 

GPM Flowing 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 

NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER , cn 

4-59 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Support Functions 

Are personnel assigned to perform necessary support 
functions? Reduce gpm flowing by 50 gpm for each 
person not assigned. 

Required: Assigned: Reduction: gpm 

GPM Flowing 



5 . Ventilation 

Was ventilation team assigned and in position to accom- 
plish ventilation within 10 minutes? If not, deduct 
100 gpm. 

Required: Assigned: Reduction: gpm 

GPM Flowing 

6 . Command and Control 

Is fireground commander in position and in control of 
operations? If not, reduce gpm flowing by 50%. 

Required: Assigned: Reduction: Gpm 



Effective Initial Attack GPM Flow 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



4-60 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS. A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



SUPPRESSION CAPABILITY EXERCISE: 
DETERMINING SUSTAINED ATTACK GPM 

STRATEGIC DEPLOYMENT CHART 

UNIT ASSIGNMENT PERSONNEL GPMs 



TOTAL GPM APPLIED 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 

4-61 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Bearpaw Shoe Co. 



US 30 




Commercial St. 

(NUMBERS IN CORNERS REPRESENT NUMBER OF FLOORS.) 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



4-63 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



BEARPAW SHOE CO. 



ENCLOSED BRIDGE 
AT 2ND FLOOR 



120' 




50' 



METAL SHED 
20' HIGH 
USED FOR 
TIRE STORAGE 



3 STORIES 9600 sq, ft, PER FLOOR 
HEAVY TIMBER CONSTRUCTION 
INCLUDES ONE OPEN STAIRWAY, 
ONE ENCLOSED STAIRWAY 
AND AN OPEN FREIGHT ELEVATOR 
CEILINGS ARE 14' HIGH 

GROUND FLOOR - TIRES 

SECOND FLOOR - STYROFOAM CUPS 

THIRD FLOOR - FURNITURE 

NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



OCCUPANCY 
STORAGE 



4-64 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



ACADEMY MOTEL 



335' 



-H 



A-Wing 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



4-65 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Motel 
D-Wing 



Ef r 



0202 I 



D201 



D204 



O203 



D206 



D205 



D208 



D207 



Fire wall 



D210 D209 



D212 D211 



D214 



D213 



D216 | |d215 



D218 D217 



D220 



JD219 



D222 



|D221 



D2-24 D223 



D226 



D225 



D228 D227 



D230 



D229 



11,750 sq. ft./floor 
Room : 330 sq, ft. 
(22 ft. x 15 ft.) 

Corridor : 6 ft. wide 

Ceilings : 8 ft. 



X.. 



Fire wall 



50' 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



4-66 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A' SYSTEMS APPROACH 



FORT HILLIS HOTEL 

(BLOCK PLAN) 

THREE-LEVEL PARKING GARAGE 



-^ 



STANDPIPES 

— f!fi — 



& 



HOTEL 



MAIN 
ENTRANCE 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



4-67 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Fort Hillis Hotel 

Typical Floor 



j ig 



PQ 



[Jig 



12' Wide Corridors 

25,680 Sq. Ft. Per Floor 

12' Ceilings 

Avg. Room = 480 Sq. Ft. (20' x 24') 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



RIVERSIDE BOARDING HOME 



BLOCK PLAN 







IAT0- 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



4-69 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



RIVERSIDE BOARDING HOME 

2ND FLOOR 







llllllllllll! 






EXTERI 








50' - 










' 




■ 


,1 




1 










3 




J 


3 
t 




/ 


3 


3 


\ 






2 






( 




2 


\ 




\ 






3 


95' 




















\ 




\ 






2 






/ „„ 


UP 




2 


3 


\ 


H 


\ 


2 








I DOWN 


\ 


4 


" 


3 










BALCONY 



ORDINARY CONSTRUCTION ATTIC - 28500 cu, ft, 

2 STORIES WITH ATTIC CORRIDORS ARE 5* WIDE 

USED FOR STORAGE MQST RQ0MS ARE 15> x 

NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



4-70 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Unit IV: Fire Suppression in the Community 



I. Fire Suppression 
A. Definition 



B. Protection vs. suppression 



C. Relation to risk 



II. G.P.M. Delivery Capability 

A. Three relationships to suppression 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



4-71 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



B. Two uses 



III. Other Fireground Functions 



IV. Initial Attack Assessment 
A. Definition 



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4-72 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



B. Criteria for assessment 



C. Time 



D. Attack Characteristics 



E. Attack priorities 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



F. Tine Temperature relationship 



G. Effective initial attack 



V. Sustained Attack Assessment 
A. Definition 



B. Characteristics 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



UNIT V 
UNPROTECTED RISK 



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Unit V: Unprotected Risk 

Obj ect ives 

The participants will be able to : 

1. Describe unprotected risk by comparing the degree of 
risk with the suppression system capability. 

2. Describe and apply the concept of acceptable risk. 



Risk Unit II presented a method to evaluate the level 
Evaluation of risk associated with various locations within 
a community. This risk evaluation is useful in 
identifying the probability that a fire would occur 
in a particular location and estimating the pre- 
dictable consequence if a fire should occur. The 
evaluation of risk enables the fire department to 
determine what it could be called upon to deal with 
if and when an actual fire occurs. The applica- 
tion of this risk analysis at a number of dif- 
ferent locations should provide a profile of the 
community's need for fire suppression services. 

Suppression Unit III provided a method to evaluate the fire 
Capability suppression capability that is currently in place 
and available to the community. It also provided 
two views of suppression capability: one dealing 
with the immediate response capability and the 
other examining the uncontrolled spread of the 
fire bevond the identified fire area. 



Balance When the suppression capability is compared with 
or the risk, it will reveal either a balance or an 
Imbalance imbalance between the two. Ideally, the amount 
of suppression capability should just balance the 
identified risk--indicating that the fire depart- 
ment's forces are adequately staffed, trained, 
equipped, and capable of dealing with the pre- 
dictable fire situations in the community. It 
may reveal that a community is overprotected , 
that is, it has more fire suppression capability 



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5-1 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



than required to match the identified risks. 
If the fire department has more capability than 
it needs to do its job, resources are being 

wasted . 

Results are more likely to indicate that there 
are locations in the community where the risk 
exceeds the capability of the fire suppression 
forces. There are predictable fire situations 
that cannot be adequately handled by the available 
fire fighting resources. This introduces the 
concept of unprotected risk . 

Unprotected "Unprotected risk" is the degree of imbalance 
Risk that exists between the risk and the suppression 
capability. If the fire suppression forces avail- 
able to respond to a particular location are 
inadequate to deal with the predictable fire 
situation, that location is considered an unpro- 
tected risk. From the viewpoint of the fire 
department, unprotected risk exceeds the service 
delivery capability of the fire suppression 
forces available to the community. (Note: This 
definition does not conform to the definition of 
unprotected risk used by the insurance industry-- 
their definition refers to a nonsprinklered occu- 
pancy.) The fire chief may logically make the 
statement that' the fire department does not have 
the capability to deal with the predictable fire 
situations at the identified unprotected risk 
areas . 



Acceptable "Acceptable risk" is an expression of how much 
Risk unprotected risk the community is willing to 
tolerate. The identification of unprotected risk 
leads us directly to the primary question: How 
much risk is the community willing to accept? 
Nothing is ever 100% safe. Acceptable risk is 
not only the amount of unprotected risk that the 
community is willing to accept, but it can also 
be the amount of acceptable loss . Is the community 
willing to pay higher taxes, accept stricter 
code provisions, or make private investments to 
change the level of unprotected risk? Usually, 
the relationships between unprotected risk, ac- 
ceptable loss and the cost of increasing suppres- 
sion capability are not well understood because 
the choices have never been specifically stated. 
When the fire department budget is cut, the com- 
munity is making a value judgement about the level 

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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



of acceptable risk. 
to strengthen the 
sprinklers in high 
tempt to decrease t 
The fire department 
make thes 
n ak e r s . 



VJhen the fire marshal tries 

fire code requirements for 

rise buildings, it is an at- 

he level of acceptable risk. 

should be in a position to 

choices explicit for the decision- 



In order to examine the acceptability of unpro- 
tected risk, ask the question: Is this risk 
representative of the entire community? The un- 
protected risk may be in one unique location in 
the community. On the other hand, there may be 
numerous locations that reflect a similar risk 
level. Whether or not the level of unprotected 
risk is consistent across the community may 
influence the community's willingness to provide 
public fire suppression. The level of accept- 
able risk has implications in terms of life safety, 
property protection, and community consequences. 



Comparison The relationship between risk, suppression capa- 
Model bility and unprotected risk is illustrated by the 
following model: 



< 




UNPROTECTED 
-*— RISK 









RISK 



SUPPRESSION 
CAPABILITY 



In this case, the analysis of risk and suppres- 
sion capability reveals a gap. The difference 
between suppression capability and risk is un- 
protected risk. The existence of unprotected 
risk indicates that certain risks exceed the 
current fire suppression capability. 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Goal of the fire protection managers is to mini- 
mize the imbalance between risk and suppression. 
Although it may not be possible to eliminate a 
catastrophic series of events, it is possible to 
prepare for the situations that are predictable. 

The imbalance between risk and suppression capa- 
bility is affected by changes in suppression capa- 
bility or changes in risk. Areas of potential 
improvements exist on both sides of the model. 

Suppression capability can be improved in a number 
of ways: more personnel, better training, im- 
proved strategy and tactics, new apparatus, dif- 
ferent fire station locations, mutual aid, auto- 
matic aid, improved communications, or a better 
water system. The possibilities are numerous. 

The risk is affected by changes in building and 
fire codes, by educating the public, by convincing 
property owners to make voluntary improvements by 
combatting arson, and by enforcing existing codes 
more effectively. 



UNPROTECTED 
RISK - 



DECREASE 



INCREASE 




RISK 



t t 



SUPPRESSION 
CAPABILITY 



Constraints It is not always possible for the fire protection 
manager to make improvements in all areas. The 
areas of potential change are constrained by 
budgets, politics, laws and legislation, public 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



pressure, awareness and acceptance, as well as 
effective management policies. The first step, 
however, is the identification of the available 
alternatives. These choices come into focus when 
the specific nature of the problem has been 
identified. 

The purpose of conducting a risk analysis and 
suppression capability analysis is to identify 
the areas of imbalance and to point out the 
problems that must be addressed. With an under- 
standing of the problems, we can begin to focus 
on the solutions. 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



SMALL GROUP ACTIVITY 



SUPPRESSION CAPABILITY—RISK COMPARISON 



1 . Compare the suppression and the risk for your assigned 
target hazard. Write a statement describing your 
conclusion. 



2. Discuss whether or not your assigned target hazard has 
a substantial unprotected risk. If so, describe it 
briefly. 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



3. List any obvious implications, e.g., are the unprotected 
risks acceptable to: 

• the fire department? 

• Che taxpayer? 

• the local politicians? 

• the building owners? 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Unit: V: Unprotected Risk 

I. Unprotected Risk 
A. Definition 



Implications 



II'. Acceptable Risk 
A. Definition 



B. Implications 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



C. Who determines acceptable risk' 



III. Comparison Model 
A. Description 



B. Risk Reducers 



C. Methods to increase suppression 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



UNIT VI 

THE COMMUNITY 

EXPERIENCE 



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Unit VI: The Community Experience 



Ubj ec tives 
The participants will be able to: 

1. Identify sources of data relevant to fire protection, 

2. Define the concept of establishing base line data 

3. Describe the criteria used in measuring effectiveness, 



Weed It has been said that many fire protection 
for managers decide what they want to do and then go 
Analysis about gathering information that will justify 
their proposed course of action as the only way to 
go. Whether it is true or not, it points out the 
need to objectively collect honest information 
that will provide accurate knowledge from which 
good decisions can be formulated. Inaccurate or 
distorted data will lead to inaccurate decisions. 
When data is relatively comprehensive and intelli- 
gently used, it will likely lead to productive 
decisions . 

The aim of this module is to introduce basic con- 
cepts of gathering and analyzing data. Emphasis 
is placed on the philosophy that data should be 
as accurate as possible and honestly and objec- 
tively interpreted to provide a true picture of 
the community and its problems. 

Experience In earlier sections of this course, fire risk was 
defined and compared to the potential capacity of 
present fire protection forces in coping with the 
community's estimated vulnerability to fire. Also 
important in measuring risk is the history of 
losses and the degree of success of fire protect- 
ion efforts in dealing with actual fires. This 
experience can provide knowledge and understanding 
based upon the results of past practices. 

Data Facts and figures can be identified, accumulated 
and organized to describe past experience. In 
other words, data can provide quantification of 
experience . 

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Base Line As new programs are developed and implemented, it 
Data will be important to measure their success in 
reaching the desired results. As objectives are 
formulated, time, quality, and quantity measure- 
ments of success will need to be established. 
The data accumulated prior to implementation can 
serve as the base line for measuring success. 
Base line data provides the "where we are now" 
and the objectives project "where we want to be." 
A comparison can determine the degree of success 
of a selected program. 

Base Year Base line data may reflect the experience of many 
Data years of past history while base year data re- 
flects the period of time that will be used as a 
base measurement for future evaluations. 



Effectiveness The question of effectiveness is a fundamental 
issue. We constantly ask ourselves whether what 
we are doing is effective in achieving its de- 
sired results. The first step in evaluating 
effectiveness is to clearly identify desired 
results . 



Desired One of the basic goals of the fire department is 
Results to save lives and property. While everyone 
agrees that these are desirable outcomes, we do 
not have any measurement system attached to them. 
How many lives and how much property do we need to 
save? How much can we afford to lose? 

The concept of effectiveness involves applying 
some sort of measurement or value system to the 
results of what we do. These may range from very 
specific quantitative measures to some fairly 
intangible perceptions. 

Do we make inspections to enforce the fire code 
or to prevent fires? Is the intended outcome of 
a fire prevention program measured in the number 
of violations corrected or in the number of fires 
prevented? Sometimes we have to use indirect 
measurements, because we can't measure the desired 
outcome directly. We may not know with any 
certainty whether or not the program prevented 
any fires, but we can see a reduction in the fire 
rate, fewer fires in the occupancies which were 
inspected (compared to those which were not 

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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



inspected) and a number of code violations which 
were corrected. 

The effectiveness of a community's fire protection 
efforts can be very difficult to estimate until 
desired results are identified and measured. 



Cost COST introduces a second concept of measurements. 
While effectiveness only involves whether or not 
we achieve our desired results, cost involves the 
value of the resources we expend trying to reach 
those results. The two measures are indepen- 
dent—we can have high costs or low costs, whether 
we are very effective or totally ineffective. 

To estimate the cost, a value is assigned to every- 
thing that goes into our activities. The cost 
includes the direct expenditures (salaries and 
materials), as well as the indirect costs (time, 
opportunity). In many cases, a dollar value can 
be assigned to everything involved in the calcu- 
lation. The cost of fire protection includes 
many different items: 

o The cost of maintaining the fire department, 
o The cost of building fire protection into 

buildings (as required by codes), 
o The cost of providing adequate fire flows 

through a public water system, 
o The cost of fire insurance premiums. 

In a similar manner, a value can be associated 
with UNdesirable results of fires: 

o Property loss. 

o Business interruption losses. 

o The costs of deaths and injuries (although 
this is highly controversial, lawyers special- 
ize in it). 

Relationship Many times, however, it is impossible to place a 

of Cost To cost on what would happen without the protection 

Effectiveness provided. The value of what is lost is known, but 

often the value of what is saved is not known. 

The value of what is saved is the missing element 

needed to evaluate effectiveness. 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



fficiency The third basic concept is EFFICIENCY. Effic- 
iency is the comparision of the value of the re- 
sults with the costs of achieving them. Mathe- 
matically, efficiency is expressed as a ratio of 
OUTPUTS to INPUTS. In terms of dollars, the 
dollar value of what is achieved is divided by 
the cost of doing it. 

If the cost of operating a fire prevention program 
is SI million and the program resulted in a reduc- 
tion of $1.5 million in losses, we could say that 
it had an efficiency rating of 150%. ($1.5 million 
[results] x 100 $1.0 million [costs]) 

If the same program only resulted in a $750,000 
reduction in losses, it was 75% efficient. 
(Unfortunately we often don't have those costs 
available at our fingertips.) 

A measure of effeciency answers the question: Are 
we doing the best that we can with the resources 
that are available to us? 

A basic goal of the fire manager should be to 
make the most efficient use of the available re- 
sources to achieve desired results (high effic- 
iency and effectiveness). 



Applying The collection and analysis of data can help to 
Experience uncover all sorts of problems that may be worth 
considering as objectives for improving fire pro- 
tection efforts. 

Not only can problems be discovered, but also 
projected risk, may not actually be occurring as 
risk analysis might predict. Comparing real ex- 
perience history with projected risk can provide 
more accurate estimates of potential vulnerabil- 
ity to fire. 

Many benefits can be derived from a good fire 
incident reporting system, including: 

A. Identifying a community's historial fire 
problems. 

B. Identifying needed code changes. 

C. Formulating fire education programs. 

D. Formulating and supporting budgets. 

E. Planning future fire protection needs. 

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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



N.F.I.R.S. The National Fire Incident Reporting System 
(N.F.I.R.S) provides rorms for collecting all 
sorts of information which can be used to quan- 
tify past fire protection experiences. Some of 
the elements that may be especially useful in- 
clude: 

A. Number of fire incidents. 

B. Life and property loss. 

C. Time of incident - month, day, hour. 

D. Geographic location. 

E. Essential fire cause factors. 

F. Cost of operations. 

1. Equipment. 

2. Personnel. 

3. Materials. 

G. Spread of fire. 

1. From point of origin. 

2. From room to room. 

3. From building to building. 
H. Suppression experience. 

1. Reflex time. 

2. Resources required (fire 

flow, equipment and personnel). 

3. Loss per fire. 



A number of national organizations provide nation- 
wide historical data from a variety of points of 
view or intended use. 

The National Fire Data Center of the Federal Emer- 
gency Management Administration compiles and pub- 
lishes a comprehensive analysis of the nation's 
fire problems. Each edition of "Fire in the United 
States" offers an analysis of national fire data 
and discusses its implications for fire loss and 
control. 



P.I.L.R. The "Property Insurance Loss Register" is a com- 
puterized register of property insurance loss 
claims which contains pertinent data about fires 
as soon as adjusters make initial inspections and 
file reports. The system can inform subscribers 
of other recorded claims and information which 
bear similarities to a recent claim. This infor- 
mation can be valuable in pinpointing specific 
fire problems, i.e., arson. 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



State Fire Most states now maintain a state fire incident re- 
Reporting porting system, most often in the state fire 
marshal's office. This information source can pro- 
vide clear fire experience trends in a variety of 
formats. By region, by cause, or by occupancy 
are examples. Where local data does not provide 
sufficient volume to establish trends, because of 
the larger number of fires analyzed, state data may 
show problems not evident in local data. 

Local In many areas, local data collection systems have 
Knowledge not been in place. A good source of reliable in- 
formation may be stored in fire department log 
books. In many cases, this can be extracted to get 
a meaningful picture of the local situation. Even 
in cases where data has not been adequately report- 
ed, good estimates can be formulated with the 
application of local knowledge. A brainstorming 
session among line firefighting personnel can 
help to clarify vague areas. 

Other Data There are other sources of information and data 
Sources which the fire service can use. Most of these 
are readily available either locally or regional- 
ly through field offices of the state or federal 
government. Some of these are: 

o U.S. Forest Service 

o State Forestry Department 

o Consumer Products Safety Commission 

o National Fire Academy 

o National Fire Protection Association 



Objective It should be kept in mind while collecting data 
Analysis that our efforts should be directed toward iden- 
tifying problems and predicting future trends 
both in terms of fire loss and system effective- 
ness. As an example, it may be more important 
to know how many fires spread beyond the room of 
origin rather than to know how many feet of hose 
and ladders were used. 



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6-6 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



Incident Report Form 



Fill In This Report 



(ANY STATE) INCIDENT REPORT 



1 a Oeiele 

2 Change 



PTdJd" 



T»p P'Mo ^Dav * 



Dav oi me Ween 



t 



I I 



I I I 



^'■NM 4DORESS 



I I I I I 



J_L 



T v pe V Zip Coae V Census Tract 

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 



Method Ql Alarm from Public 



V Type ol Sii 



Type of Action Taken 



Co Inspection 

D ' slr ' c ' I i I 



Mutual Aid 

1 D Reed 2 D Given 



hk 



— 



I No Other Vehicles 
Used at Scene 



^ Fixed Property (. 



incident-related tniunes* 
! Service I I I I Others 



incident-related Fatalities' 
j Service I I I I Others 



I I I 



>? 



Modie Property Type' 



u 



J_L 



Termination Stage 



Equipment Involved in igmton (il 



TTypec 



F^Form oi Heat ot i 



1_L 



Material ignited 



I i 



Form ol Material Ignited 



u 



^ Structure Type 



P'Conslrucnon Type 



Constroction Method 



Extent ol Flame Damage 
Y Exient ol Fire Control Damage ■ 



Extent ol Water Damage 



Y Deiector Performance 



^ bpnnkier Performance 



IF FLAME SPREAO 
BEYOND ROOM 
OF ORIGIN 



Type ol Material Generating Most Flame 



1_L 



Avenue o( Flame Travel 



IF SMOKE SPREAD 
BEYOND ROOM 
OF ORIGIN 



Type ot Material Generating Most SmoKe 



Avenue ol SmoKe Travel 



Jl 



Method ol Extinguishment 



V Property Damage Oassiticanon 



I ■ ■ I 



V II Mod-ile Properly 



Otticer m Charge (Name Position, Assignment) 



Member Making Report (II Oillerent Irom Aoove) 



remarks are made c 



i Agent Application 



| License No (it any) 



Ignilion 



| Year | Make 



| Serial No 



fcr-h 



6-7 



Casualty Report Form 











_ Firp nenartment 
















Fill In This Report 
in Your Own Words 


(ANY STATE) CASUALTY REPORT 




902G 6/77 
LAYOUT 2 

| Page 






5 


rpwo 


''incident No 

1 1 1 1 1 


r E x B r Mo 

No . 


r Oav 
1 


'Year 
1 


'Day ol Week 


''Alarm Time 








V Casualty Number 

1 I 1 


1 D Delete 

2 D Change 




QA 
OB 
OC 

00 
QE 
OF 


Casualty Last Name 


First Name M 


1 DOB 


'Age 
1 


F'Timeol Iniury 
I I 1 




Home Address 


Telephone 




V SEX CASUALTY TYPE SEVERITY AFFILIATION 

1 O Male 1 □ Fire Casualty 1 D Injury 1 D Fire Setvice 

2 D Female 2 O Action Casualty 2 D Death 2 a Other Emergency Personnel 

3 Q EMS Casualty 3 a Civilian 




V Familiarity Wuh Structure V Location ot Ignition 

1 1 1 


^Condition Belore Iniury 

1 


* 


^Condition Preventing Escape F" Activity at Time of Iniury 

1 1 


V Cause ol Injury 

1 




^Nature of Iniury ^Part ol Body Injured 

1 1 


V Disposition 

1 




Q See Remarks on Back See Additional Report 








V Casualty Number 

1 1 1 


1 D Delete 

2 Change 




OA 

oa 

OC 

00 
OC 
OP 


Casualty Last Name j First Name Ml DOB 


1 


F'Timeot Iniury 
I 1 1 




Home Address 


Telephone 




V SEX CASUALTY TYPE SEVERITY AFFILIATION 

1 Male 1 Fire Casualty 1 D Iniury 1 D Fire Service 

2 Female 2 O Action Casualty 2 Death 2 Q Other Emergency Personnel 

3 D EMS Casualty 3 Civilian 


> 


^Familiarity With Structure 

I 


^Location ol Ignition 

1 


^Condition Belore Iniury 

1 


5 


'condition Preventing Escape 

I 


^Activity at Time ot Injury 

1 


Fcause ol Injury 

1 




''Nature ol Injury 

I 


^Pan ol Body Inured 

1 


^Disposition 

1 




Q See Remarks on Back a See Additional Report 








^Casualty Number 

1 1 . 


1 D Delete 

2 D Change 




OA 

oa 

OC 

00 
Of 

or 


Casualty Last Name 


FirstName 


Ml 


DOB 


fAge 
1 


u r 




Home Address 


Telephone 




W SEX CASUALTY TYPE SEVERITY AFFILIATION 

1 D Male 1 Fire Casualty ' □ injury ' Q P"e Service 

2 □ Female 2 O Action Casualty 2 □ Death 2 Other Emergency Personnel 

3 D EMS Casualty 3 Civilian 


O 


^Farmhanry With Structure 

1 


W Location at ignition 

1 


^Condition Belore Iniury 

1 


1 


V Condition Preventing Escape 

1 


^Activity at Time ol Iniury 

1 


V Cause ol Inrury 

1 


GJ 


' Nature ot Iniury 

1 


''Pan olBody inrured 

1 


'Disposition 

1 




See Remarks on Back Q See Additional Report 








Otlicer m Charge (Name. Position. Assignment) Dale 






Member Making Report (II Ditlerent From Above) Dale 























6-8 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Group Discussion 



As a group the class will discuss various categories of 
data or information that will be helpful for the fire 
manager in collecting the kinds of facts needed to make 
good planning decisions. 

On the form below you can note down, if you care to, the 
categories of information and specific examples for each 
category. 



Categories 

1 . 2. 3. 



4. 5. 6. 



Specific Kinds of Information 



Category 1 



Category 2 



Category 3 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A* SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Category 4 



Category 5 



Category 6 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Group Discussion (continued) 



The group will continue it discussion now focussing on 
three specific areas which the fire manager needs to 
reflect on as part of the risk analysis process. These 
are cost , effectiveness and efficiency . 

If you care to, you can record below the questions the 
group suggests need to be answered for each of the three 
areas . 

Cost 

1. 



2. 



Effectiveness 



2. 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



3. 



4. 



5. 



6. 



Efficiency 
1. 



2. 



3. 



4. 



5, 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Group Discussion (continued) 

Now the group will discuss questions that deal with two or 
three areas at one time. You can record these questions 
of you care to for later reference. 



2. 



3. 



4. 



5. 



7. 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Unit VI: The Community Experience 

I. Definitions 

A. Experience 



B. Base Data 



C. Base Year 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



D. Effectiveness 



E. Cost 



F. Efficiency 



II. Applying Data Analysis 

A. Identification of special problems 



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FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



B. Testing risk predictions 



C. Evaluating effectiveness 



III. Types of experience 

A. Prevention Activities 



B. Suppression Activities 



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APPENDIX 



INITIAL ATTACK FIRE FLOW FORM 



Occupancy 



Dimensions of largest single open space: 

Length Width Height 

Cubic foot volume: cu. ft. 

Cubic feet divided by 100 = GPM 



FIRE FLOW ESTIMATE FORM 



BLOCK A: BASIC INFORMATION 

Occupancy Name 

Address 



Classification 
F.M.A. 



Calculated by 



Est. F.F. 



GPM 



BLOCK B: DETERMINE TYPE OF CONSTRUCTION (Circle one) 
Fire Resistive Heavy Timber Ordinary Masonry or Concrete 
Non-Combustible Wood Frame Mixed (Use predominant type) 



BLOCK C: DETERMINE EFFECTIVE AREA 



Add 



Largest floor area 

(sq. ft.) 

a) 50% of all other floor areas 
except for fire resistive 
construction; 

b) 25% of two largest successive 
floor areas for fire resistive 
construction with vertical 
separations ; 

c) 50% of eight largest successive 
floors for fire resistive 
construction with unprotected 
vertical openings. 



(sq. ft.) 



TOTALS 
•COLUMN 



total 
sq.ft. (C) 



BLOCK D: DETERMINE BASE FIRE FLOW 

Select the correct GPM figure from Table 1 . 



GPM (D) 



c u 



BLOCK E: DETERMINE OCCUPANCY 
FACTOR ADJUSTMENT 

Step 1 : Select a high or low fire 
load factor up to 25% 



Step 2: Multiply (D) by this 
factor. 



Step 3: If HIGH RISK, add the 
amount to (D) ; if LOW 
RISK subtract from (D) . 

NEW ADJUSTED TOTAL 



GPM (E) 



U M 

R E 

E N 

T 



BLOCK F: DETERMINE EXPOSURE 
ADJUSTMENT 

Using the tables 
below, enter the 
separation and the 
adjustment for each 
of the building's 
four "faces." 



Separation Adjustment 
in Feet Range 



0-10 
11 - 30 
31 - 60 
61-100 



15 - 25% 

10 - 20% 

7-15% 

5 - 10% 



Expo- 
sure 


Sep. 
Feet 


Adj. 


North 






East 






South 






West 







Total adjust- 
ment (not more 
than 75%) 



Multiply (E) by this percentage. 



NEW ADJUSTED TOTAL 



GPM (F) 



BLOCK G: TOTAL REQUIRED FIRE FLOW 

11 If less than 500 GPM, enter II 

11 500 GPM. 11 

II If greater than 12,000 GPM, II 

11 enter 12,000 GPM. II 

11 If less than 2,500 GPM, 11 

11 round off (H) to the nearest 11 

11 250 GPM. II 

11 If greater than 2,500 GPM, 11 

11 round off (H) to the nearest 11 

11 500 GPM. II 

TOTAL REQUIRED FIRE FLOW ROUNDED OFF = 



GPM (G) 



(ENTER TOTAL ON LINE 
THREE, BLOCK A) 



************************************************************ 



Life Risk Matrix 





Exit Classification 


Protection 


All exterior 
exits 


Interior exits 
access corridor 


Inadequate 
exits 


Fully 

sprinklered 
AND full 
detection 


VERY LOW 


VERY LOW 


LOW 


Fully 

sprinklered 
OR full 
detection 


VERY LOW 


LOW 


MEDIUM 


Sprinklered 
exit corri- 
dors AND 
detectors in 
sleeping 
areas 


VERY LOW 


LOW 


MEDIUM 


Detectors 
in sleeping 
areas only 


LOW 


MEDIUM 


HIGH 


Manual fire 
alarm only 


MEDIUM 


HIGH 


VERY* HIGH 


No early 
warning 


MEDIUM 


VERY HIGH 


VERY HIGH 



NOTE 

The survey team should consider the occupancy use and the 
number of people at risk in a particular building. An 
unusually high occupant load or other conditions could 
indicate a higher or lower life risk categorization. 



*********************************************************** 



FIRE RISK RATING FORM 



SUMMARY 



Occupancy 
Name 

Address 



Classification 
F.M.A. 



Calculated by 



TYPE OF CONSTRUCTION (Circle one) 

Fire Resistive Heavy Timber Ordinary 
Non-combustible Wood Frame Mixed 





Property 

Risk 
(gpm's) 


Life Risk 


Community 
Consequence 


Initial Attack 








Sustained Attack 





Special Risk Factors 



SUPPRESSION CAPABILITY EXERCISE: 
DETERMINING INITIAL ATTACK GPM 

STRATEGIC DEPLOYMENT CHART 

UNIT ASSIGNMENT PERSONNEL GPMs 



TOTAL GPM APPLIED: 



INITIAL ATTACK CAPABILITY 
RATING FORM 



All personnel must be provided with full protective clothing 
and SCBA. Personnel without proper equipment do not receive 
any credit. 



1 . Attack Lines in Operation 

x 1-1/2" at 100 gpm = gpm 

x 1-3/4" at 150 gpm = + gpm 

x 2" at 200 gpm = + gpm 

x 2-1/2" at 250 gpm = + gpm 

Total GPM Flowing 

2. Water Supply 

Is adequate uninterrupted water supply in position to 
maintain total gpm flowing? 

If not, reduce to a flow which is assured as reliable. 
A pump operator must be assigned for each apparatus 
delivering water. 

Note: Tanker supply is acceptable when shuttle system 
is in place to maintain the total gpm flowing or if 
sufficient supply can be delivered to maintain the 
attack for 30 minutes. 

Reliable GPM Flowing 

3. Search and Rescue 



Are required number of personnel assigned to perform 
search and rescue? Reduce gpm flowing by 50 gpm for 
each person not assigned. 

Required: Assigned: Reduction: gpm 

GPM Flowing 



Support Functions 

Are personnel assigned to perform necessary support 
functions? Reduce gpm flowing by 50 gpra for each 
person not assigned. 

Required: Assigned: Reduction: gpm 

GPM Flowing 



5 . Ventilation 

Was ventilation team assigned and in position to accom- 
plish ventilation within 10 minutes? If not, deduct 
100 gpm. 

Required: Assigned: Reduction: gpm 

GPM Flowing 

6 . Command and Control 

Is fireground commander in position and in control of 
operations? If not, reduce gpm flowing by 50%. 

Required: Assigned: Reduction: Gpm 



Effective Initial Attack GPM Flow 



SUPPRESSION CAPABILITY EXERCISE: 
DETERMINING SUSTAINED ATTACK GPM 

STRATEGIC DEPLOYMENT CHART 

UNIT ASSIGNMENT PERSONNEL GPMs 



TOTAL GPM APPLIED 



APPENDIX 



FIRE RISK ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH 



Bibliography 



G. West Churchman, THE SYSTEMS APPROACH. M.Y., N.Y 
Delacorte Press, 1968. 



Rosna, Joel de , THE tIACROSCOPE: A NEW WORLD SCIENTIFIC 
SYSTEM. N.Y., N.Y.: Harper & Row Publishers, 1979. 



COMMUNITY FIRE PROTECTION MASTER PLAN. Palm Springs, 
CA: City of Palm Springs, 1979. 



"National Fire Incident Reporting System", FIRE IN THE 
UNITED STATES, The Federal Emergency Management Agency 
Second Edition, July, 1982. 



NATIONAL FIRE ACADEMY 



NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER 



UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS-URBANA 



3 0112 105178021